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Global Times

Italy expects 210,000 COVID-19 infections by mid-April: research team

Global Times

Source:Globaltimes.cn Published: 2020/3/24 3:38:59

Italy is likely to see 210,000 coronavirus (COVID-19) infections by mid-April, said a research team at China's Tsinghua University, emphasizing the country's infection rate could taper later than the date if it doesn't improve quarantine measures, or continues to neglect patients and suspected carriers.

The prediction was made by Yuan Hongyong, vice dean of the Institute of Public Safety Research of Tsinghua University, and his team based on the latest COVID-19 data from different countries.

Italy's medical supplies have been strained and patients under home quarantine cannot prevent transmissions, said Yuan.

The country may record 100,000 to 210,000 confirmed cases by April 10, provided the country continues investing in medical resources and strengthening virus prevention measures, Yuan explained.

Italy on Monday reported 63,927 COVID-19 cases, among which 6,077 have died.

Yuan's team also foresaw an increase in similar trends for other virus-stricken countries like South Korea, Spain, and Japan.

Spain may experience similar patterns as its neighboring Italy, with confirmed cases soaring to 330,000 as of April 10. Currently, Spain's de-facto infection number is relatively lower than Yuan previously predicted, which has caused him to think the turning point for Spain could arrive later than April 10.

Yuan also noted that South Korea's total infection number would reach 10,000, and also said the country would experience multiple jumps in infection rates in the future.

Yuan and his team noticed irregularities in Japan and concluded that the country's strategy of testing a few has made future prediction efforts difficult. Japan needs to increase testing and quarantine measures, Yuan suggested.

With France, Yuan said that because of the country's strict measures, the number of COVID-19 infections could be contained between 45,000 to 60,000.

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