Tellis: Pakistan's Mixed Record on Anti-Terrorism
Council on Foreign Relations
Interviewee: Ashley J. Tellis, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor
February 6, 2008
Ashley J. Tellis, a leading expert on South Asia who has served in the National Security Council and State Department as a senior adviser, says he expects a coalition government of the late Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) party, which backs President Musharraf, to emerge from the February 18 elections. He also says Pakistan has a mixed record on anti-terrorism and still tolerates Taliban elements that operate from Pakistani territory into Afghanistan.
The Pakistani parliamentary elections, which were postponed after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, will take place on February 18. What should we look for? What should we expect? Do we have any idea which parties will come out ahead in this election?
Well, you know that is really the $1 million question. I don’t think even President Pervez Musharraf, despite his control of the intelligence services and despite the role that the intelligence services have been playing in shaping the outcome, even knows the answers. What seems to be the most likely guess is that they are heading towards a hung parliament, where no single party gets the majority. But there are really two parties that I think are likely to garner the most number of seats. The first is of course, Mrs. Bhutto’s party, the PPP—that is the Pakistan People’s Party—which will be trading in part on the sympathy vote. And the second is the Pakistan Muslim League (Q)… which is the party that has supported Musharraf. Now from Musharraf’s point of view, the question really for him is, if it turns out this way can a viable coalition be formed between the PPP and the PML-Q?
Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.
Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.
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