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Analysis: Al-Qaeda's Resurrection

Council on Foreign Relations

March 5, 2007
Prepared by: Eben Kaplan

Barring any surprises, Osama bin Laden will mark his fiftieth birthday on March 10. Five years ago, it seemed unlikely that the man would survive to celebrate the occasion, at least not outside U.S. custody. Not only does al-Qaeda’s leader remain at large, but he is rallying the troops. Recent reports suggest bin Laden and his top deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri have reestablished their chain of command (NYT) and begun operating new training camps in the northwestern Pakistani region of North Waziristan. The top Taliban leader in southern Afghanistan recently told a British television station that he and bin Laden regularly “share plans” (CNN).

Critics of the Bush administration suggest bin Laden would be long gone had the United States stayed focused on its mission in Afghanistan and not become mired in Iraq, often referring to Afghanistan as “The Forgotten War” (Boston Globe). Though less pointed in its criticism, the Iraq Study Group Report notes “U.S. efforts in Afghanistan have been complicated by the overriding focus of U.S. attention and resources on Iraq.” But administration officials contend that its efforts in Afghanistan must be considered in the context of the myriad dangers facing America. Most recently, J. Michael McConnell, the newly appointed director of national intelligence, told the Senate Armed Services Committee “America confronts a greater diversity (PDF) of threats and challenges than ever before.”

Terrorism remains the top concern, McConnell testified, with al-Qaeda still posing “the greatest threat to U.S. interests.” He claimed global counterterror efforts have decimated the organization’s ranks, killing or capturing three-quarters of its leadership. Though al-Qaeda appears resurgent, McConnell said, the new commanders lack experience (WashPost).

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.