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Analysis: Measuring the Bird Flu Threat

Council on Foreign Relations

November 21, 2006
Prepared by: Carin Zissis

Almost a decade after the first outbreak of H5N1 (PDF), a highly pathogenic form of avian influenza, researchers and international health organizations continue monitoring the disease as a global health threat. As this new Backgrounder explains, the disease commonly known as “bird flu” already has wreaked economic and animal health havoc, killing hundreds of millions of chickens and spreading beyond its origins in Southeast Asia to the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. The human case count remains relatively low at 258, although 2006 has been the deadliest year on record thus far with seventy-five deaths. Scientists and policymakers remain concerned that the virus, capable of spreading from infected birds to humans, could become a lethal pandemic if it evolves to allow for easy human-to-human transmission.

A recent discovery provided some hope: Researchers in the United States and Japan identified two genetic factors missing in the current strain that would allow for the virus to infect humans (ABC). Looking for these two genetic features in evolving strains could be helpful for developing future vaccines. Researchers at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the University of Boulder have also recently created a gene test capable of quickly recognizing flu strains, including H5N1.

However, experts say vaccination and treatment plans in many countries do not take into account the likely shortage of medical resources in the case of a pandemic, as explained in this study by researchers at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Ben-Gurion University in Israel.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.