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Analysis: Was it al-Qaeda?

Council on Foreign Relations

August 14, 2006
Prepared by: Eben Kaplan

As British officials press on with their investigation into a plot to down as many as ten airplanes simultaneously over the Atlantic Ocean, many fingers have pointed to the al-Qaeda network as the likely culprit. U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff told a press conference the plan "has the hallmarks of an al-Qaeda-type plot." President Bush, on the other hand, avoided naming any specific terrorist group, calling the conspirators "Islamic fascists." There are apparent connections between the Britons alleged to have planned the attacks (WashPost) and co-conspirators in Pakistan, though direct links to senior al-Qaeda leadership are not yet apparent (NYT). Pakistani officials have in their custody Rashid Rauf, a British citizen believed to be the ringleader of the plot. They say he has provided "many clues" that link al-Qaeda to the foiled attack (Guardian), though this evidence is suspect, as human rights groups allege he was tortured.

Some terrorism analysts, including Bill Roggio of the Counterterrorism Blog, point to Matiur Rehman as the likeliest link to al-Qaeda's leaders. Rehman, who was profiled by ABC News on August 9, is believed to maintain the "Rolodex of Jihad," a list of the names of all the people who have been trained in al-Qaeda camps. Experts say al-Qaeda's top officials, specifically Ayman al-Zawahiri and Osama bin Laden, were likely not involved with the plot because U.S. efforts to apprehend them have limited their ability to oversee operations. Henry Crumpton, the U.S. State Department coordinator for counterterrorism, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in June there is evidence the two "are frustrated by their lack of direct control" (PDF).

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.