Homeland Security

DATE=12/09/02

TYPE=FOCUS

TITLE=The War on Terrorism and the Crisis in Iraq

NUMBER=8-047

BYLINE=Victor Morales

TELEPHONE=(202) 260-8525

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Ed Warner

CONTENT=

INTRO: For more than a year -- intelligence and law enforcement agencies around the world have focused on finding al-Qaida cells and arresting their leaders. But the threat posed by Osama bin Laden's terrorists remains very real.

On Focus, V-O-A's Victor Morales examines the war on terrorism and how it might be affected by a war with Iraq.

TEXT: A fundamental characteristic of terrorism is that even a weakened terrorist organization can still commit almost as much harm as a robust network. That's the case with al-Qaida.

Despite being routed from Afghanistan last year, al-Qaida on the run remains a potent threat. Experts point to last month's twin bombings in Kenya and the October attack in Indonesia that killed nearly 200 people -- all of which appear to be linked to al-Qaida.

Regardless of whether mastermind Osama bin Laden escaped the allies' assault on Afghanistan, analysts warn that the terrorist kingpin set in motion a new phase in the organization of international terrorism.

TAPE: CUT ONE BRUCE HOFFMAN :07

"Bin Laden has essentially brought the techniques of modern management sciences and business to running a terrorist organization."

TEXT: Bruce Hoffman -- an expert on terrorism at The RAND Corporation here in Washington.

TAPE: CUT TWO BRUCE HOFFMAN :25

"Just as multi-nationals throughout the world in the early-1990s were moving to flatter [i.e., streamlined], more linear, more network types of organizations, that was precisely the vision bin Laden brought to the terrorist organization that he and his followers created. He deliberately crafted, and his chief lieutenants crafted, an organization that functions at multiple levels, using both top-down and bottom-up approaches."

TEXT: Although he preached violence and extremism under the guise of Islam, Osama bin Laden was never trained as a cleric or theologian. In college, he studied economics and public administration, and he applied that knowledge to the world of terrorism. It's believed that Osama bin Laden micromanaged al-Qaida's key operations from the top-down while he cultivated and promoted ideas and projects from lower levels in the organization.

And analysts point out that, like all good company presidents and C-E-Os, Osama bin Laden seems to have had a corporate succession plan. They fear that al-Qaida's ability to continue to carry out attacks illustrates the organization's resilience in replenishing the ranks of its mid- and senior-level managers . . . a proven strategy for terrorists.

Again, Bruce Hoffman of The RAND Corporation:

TAPE: CUT THREE BRUCE HOFFMAN/JAMES PHILLIPS Montage :45

HOFFMAN: "When you look back in history -- whether it's a guerrilla or terrorist organization -- even when these groups suffered grievous or enormous losses on the ground in terms of their foot soldiers, so long as the key core leadership remained intact, they've demonstrated a remarkable ability to regenerate themselves and carry on their struggle. To a certain extent, we saw this with the N-L-F, or Viet Cong, during the Tet Offensive in Vietnam in 1968 when on the ground they suffered enormous losses, but the leadership remained intact, withdrew, and learned from their mistakes. And, of course, when the N-V-A stormed into Saigon in 1975, the N-L-F was there. They adjusted and adapted."

PHILLIPS: "I think this is going to be a very unconventional war against unconventional enemies."

TEXT: James Phillips -- a specialist on international terrorism at The Heritage Foundation here in Washington -- says it could be a hundred year war.

TAPE: CUT FOUR JAMES PHILLIPS/MATTHEW LEVITT Montage :26

PHILLIPS: "Even if we get bin Laden, al-Qaida is a hydra-headed organization. I think bin Laden's role has been exaggerated. His role, as he envisions it, is shown by one of his self-selected code names which is 'The Contractor.' He sub-contracts out terrorism to affiliated groups. My point is that, eventually, we're going to have to go after all of these groups."

LEVITT: "The nature of the terrorist threat today needs to be understood as a matrix, as a web."

TEXT: Matthew Levitt is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He warns that with al-Qaida operating in some 60 countries, it would be a mistake to take a piecemeal approach in the war on terrorism.

TAPE: CUT FIVE MATTHEW LEVITT :32

"If we don't deal with everything at once -- everything meaning all parts of international terrorism -- we're not only undermining those efforts that we are setting out to accomplish, but also we're completely misunderstanding the nature of international terrorism. Even among those groups where there are no operational links, for example, between al-Qaida and Hamas, it is naive to think that there are not logistical and financial links. We cannot say, 'We're dealing with al-Qaida now and when we're done with that, we'll deal with all of the rest of the terrorist groups.' It just doesn't work that way."

TEXT: Then, there's the question of Iraq. Given -- what most observers call -- the dangerous game of "hide and seek" dictator Saddam Hussein is playing with suspected weapons of mass destruction, can the allies maintain the war on terrorism if war breaks out in Iraq?

TAPE: CUT SIX MATTHEW LEVITT :06

"As we are fighting another war, the war on terrorism is not going to conveniently go on pause."

TEXT: Again, counterterrorism analyst -- Matthew Levitt.

TAPE: CUT SEVEN MATTHEW LEVITT :26

"The terrorists simply are not going to accommodate us by slowing down their operational intentions. In fact, it's very likely that they will take the opportunity of our distraction [by a war with Iraq] to try to increase those operations. That includes, of course, al-Qaida. It includes al-Qaida attacks on 'hardened' [i.e., military and government related] installations of the strategic type that they prefer and, of course, on 'soft' targets [e.g., civilian] as we've recently seen."

TEXT: Analysts say there are no discernible links between al-Qaida and Iraq. Although the bin Laden propaganda machine denounces moderate Islamic states, observers say it's possible al-Qaida and Saddam Hussein could find common ground if the allies try to disarm Baghdad. And experts warn that it's only a matter of time until al-Qaida attacks the United States again . . . perhaps with Iraqi help.

TAPE: CUT EIGHT DANIEL BENJAMIN :04

"We have to be very sober about what we face in the months ahead."

TEXT: Daniel Benjamin served on the National Security Council under former President Clinton and is now an analyst of terrorism at the Center for Strategic and International Studies here in Washington. He's especially concerned about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction falling into the wrong hands.

TAPE: CUT NINE DANIEL BENJAMIN :37

"Much of the Iraqi biological weapons program is now mobile in various vehicles, puttering around the country. We're not going to find them all as quickly as we would like. And disaffected Iraqi security officials, scientists and other Baathist apparatchiks may well find this to be a very attractive economic opportunity, knowing that their own future is rather grim. And they may privatize some of this material. And if they do, it will be sold to the highest bidder and, I think, its safe to say the highest bidder will almost certainly be Islamist terrorists."

TEXT: Using terror as a catalyst, al-Qaida seeks to divide the world along religious lines -- carrying out attacks not only in the West, but also in moderate Muslim countries.

To win the war on terrorism, most observers say, it's crucial for the world to understand that in their zeal to reshape Islam, Osama bin Laden's terrorists are murdering people of all faiths -- including Muslims.

For Focus, I'm Victor Morales.