Homeland Security

DATE=11/18/02

TYPE=FOCUS

TITLE=The Hunt for al-Qaida (CQ)

NUMBER=8-032

BYLINE=Victor Morales

TELEPHONE=(202) 260-8525

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Ed Warner

CONTENT=

(ED: Resending to correct text of ACT # 5)

INTRO: Since the allies routed al-Qaida terrorists from Afghanistan last year, intelligence and law enforcement officials around the world have been focused on finding al-Qaida cells and arresting their leaders.

On Focus, V-O-A's Victor Morales reports on the progress being made in rounding-up Osama bin Laden's terrorists.

TEXT: Stripped of their sanctuaries in Afghanistan and with their leadership on the run, al-Qaida followers are dispersed throughout the world. But the threat they pose remains very real. Analysts say one of the main problems in dealing with a network such as al-Qaida is that it's so extensive that no one knows how big it really is.

Daniel Benjamin served on the National Security Council under former President Clinton and is now an expert on terrorism at the Center for Strategic and International Studies here in Washington.

TAPE: CUT ONE DANIEL BENJAMIN :19

"We don't know how many people are out there. We have to assume that there's quite a number of them. There are a lot of senior al-Qaida managers who have not been captured; there are a lot of cells out there that have not been found. We're making strides, but unfortunately, we're in a game in which we can score and score and score, and they only have to score once in order to look like they're winning."

TEXT: Indeed, al-Qaida has scored since last year's attacks on New York and Washington. U-S and Indonesian authorities believe al-Qaida was at least partly responsible for last month's bombing in Bali that killed nearly 200 people. The bombing of a French oil tanker near Yemen and the killing of a U-S Marine on an island off the Kuwaiti coast in October are also thought to be linked to al-Qaida. And a Philippine rebel group -- Abu Sayaf -- which has close ties to al-Qaida is believed to have carried out last month's bombing in Zamboanga that killed an American Green Beret. Nonetheless, U-S-led efforts against al-Qaida are beginning to pay off.

Magnus Ranstorp is Director of the Center for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland. He points to three major victories thus far in the war on terrorism.

TAPE: CUT TWO MAGNUS RANSTORP/BRUCE HOFFMAN Montage :49

RANSTORP: "The capture of Ramzi Binalshibh, in cooperation with the Pakistani I-S-I, I think, was a tremendous success. A second success was the Predator drone attack against one of the suspects of the U-S-S Cole bombing that occurred in Yemen. And a third major success has been the capture of Abu Zabada in Pakistan and his interrogation in a third country. I think the success has been not only in the individuals who have been captured, but also in terms of how this has been transformed into new partnerships -- not only in the security and intelligence spheres, but also in the political sphere."

HOFFMAN: "The question in combating terrorism is always one of international political will."

TEXT: Bruce Hoffman of The RAND Corporation here in Washington and another expert on terrorism. He says that one of the most significant developments since last year's attacks on the United States has been increased coordination between the U-S and its European allies.

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"In the past, it has been very uneven. There have been problems, I think, with a lack of precision or widespread agreement on the dimensions of the threat. But that's what really has separated the past 14 months from any previous era in terrorism. We have had, I think, enormous commonality on the dimensions of the threat and an understanding of what the threat poses. And this, in turn, has really set in motion some very effective cooperation."

TEXT: But like many terrorist groups, al-Qaida is a diffuse and amorphous network. Apprehending a few key leaders will not ensure the organization's collapse. However, in some cases, analysts say capturing Osama bin Laden's top lieutenants can be crucial.

Law enforcement authorities point out that al-Qaida's mid-level operatives serve as the lynch pin between the top leadership and the foot soldiers who carry out attacks. It's hoped that without a second-tier leadership, al-Qaida's ability to communicate down through its ranks will be disrupted -- hampering the organization's ability to carry out attacks and to cultivate future terrorist masterminds.

Another key element in the war on terrorism is disrupting the international web of charities, businesses and other fund raising ventures that support al-Qaida. But an important Middle Eastern ally has been of particular concern.

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"There's no more complicated an example than the Saudis."

TEXT: Matthew Levitt, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a consultant to the U-S government on counterterrorism:

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"A very strong sign of that is that the United States has tried very hard for the past year to work cooperatively to curb terrorist financing -- agreeing at one point not to designate Saudi charities or individuals unilaterally as linked to terrorism, but to do so only in cooperation with the Saudis. We now find that the United States government is sending officials to Europe with lists of approximately a dozen terrorist financiers who are considered to be the senior check writers for al-Qaida. Not all of them, but most of them are Saudis. And the message that is being sent is that, 'If you, Saudi Arabia, will not cooperate with us in this attempt to curb terrorist financing, we will do it on our own.' And the reason we have to bring in the Europeans and others is because the individuals and their companies and their front organizations have funds in the United States and elsewhere. If we act unilaterally, we can only seize their funds here."

TEXT: So far, some $ 25-milllion dollars in alleged terrorist assets have been siezed here in the U-S. But unlike for-profit criminals, religious or ideologically driven terrorists tend to deal in relatively small amounts of money, making their financial transactions seem more normal and, thus, more difficult to trace. To date, less than $ 150-million in suspected terrorist assets have been frozen worldwide.

According to Nikos Passas (pa-SAHS), an authority on the financing of terrorism at Temple University in Philadelphia, finding the money can be close to impossible.

TAPE: CUT SIX NIKOS PASSAS :49

"As far as the financing of these operations is concerned, the money in the beginning can be quite legitimate. Therefore, it will not raise any suspicions when it is deposited in a bank account or any kind of an account and then transferred somewhere else. That is part of the problem. Terrorists, not just from al-Qaida but from all kinds of groups that have operated around the world, have been very creative in how they create finances. They have used legitimate companies, charities, community collections. They have used all kinds of crime -- anything from kidnaping to extortion to blackmail. So only your imagination can actually put limits on how they can create money and how they can transfer money."

TEXT: Despite renewed coordination between American and European law enforcement agencies, efforts to track al-Qaida's money trail often have bogged down. Some European countries say the United States has asked them to freeze the assets of individuals and organizations suspected of sponsoring terrorism. But, they claim, Washington doesn't always provide sufficient evidence to satisfy European courts. The U-S maintains that it's trying to balance the need for action against terrorists with the need to protect sources and methods of intelligence gathering.

Most analysts agree that eventually these sorts of logistical problems can be worked out. The main challenge facing America and its allies, they say,is being more rigorous in gathering intelligence and pre-empting attacks. [///BEGIN OPT///]

Again, Bruce Hoffman of The RAND Corporation:

TAPE: CUT SEVEN BRUCE HOFFMAN :25

"No terrorist group is going to stick to the same modus operandi or leave the same foot print if they know that the authorities or their opponents are well versed in understanding how they operate. They have to change not just to succeed in their attacks and not just to terrorize people, but indeed to survive. But I think what this shows is that we have to have the type of dynamic, flexible defense that prevents attacks along a broad spectrum of potential eventualities." [///END OPT///]

TEXT: Staying one step ahead of the terrorists is only the beginning. It's estimated that the U-S will spend hundreds-of-billions of dollars during the next decade to fight terrorism. But most observers agree that as long as major portions of the world remain susceptible to al-Qaida's ideology of hate -- terrorism against the United States and its allies will be an enduring threat.

For Focus, I'm Victor Morales.