Boston Herald March 01, 2014

Russia flexes muscles with move into Crimea

By Antonio Planas and Bob McGovern

A superpower battle is brewing over Ukraine as President Obama warned Russia to back off yesterday as it assembled troops in the region in a showdown global security experts fear could fuel the unrest and result in a new Cold War.

"It could very easily lead to a bigger conflict, and that is something we truly want to avoid," said Cedric Leighton, a retired Air Force veteran who held top posts at the NSA and Pentagon. "It certainly looks and feels a lot like the Cold War."

Russian President Vladimir Putin's latest move into Crimea, a heavily Russian region of Ukraine, is not as significant for the U.S. as it would be if Russians invaded other parts of the country, Leighton said, comparing a possible Russian invasion into Western Ukraine to Hitler's march through Europe.

"It's frighteningly parallel," he said. "That is what should be keeping people up at night. It could easily lead to a bigger conflict."

Others say Putin is emboldened coming off the close of the Winter Olympics in Sochi.

"The Russians aren't listening very carefully, and Putin, having greater control coming out of the Olympic Games, is not viewing us as a particularly worrisome threat," said professor William C. Martel of the FletcherSchool of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. "We're going through the motions making diplomatic threats."

Obama said yesterday, "There will be costs for any military intervention in Ukraine."

Russia watchers said the chilling warning — and Putin's hardline stance — has Ukraine teet­ering on the brink.

"Russia was founded in the Ukraine, in Kiev. Imagining a Russia without Kiev is like trying to imagine an America without Boston," said John Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org. "Russia without the Ukraine is a country; Russia with Ukraine is an empire."

The U.S. and Russia are now "chest-pounding" like gorillas "to scare each other off when they don't actually want to come to blows," Pike told the Herald.

Obama's words are simply "rhetoric," added Jim Walsh, an international security expert at MIT. Walsh said the United States — at most — will attempt to levy sanctions on Russia for any incursion.

"There is zero chance we get involved with force," Walsh said. "The Europeans don't want it, and we don't want it. I think the Russians would find it hard to believe that it's a credible threat."

U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry has said Russian military intervention in Ukraine would be a "grave mistake."

The latest flare-up is reminiscent of the five-day war in 2008 between Russia and Georgia. Russia's intervention in Georgia was over the break away of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which have large ethnic Russian populations. Russia remains in control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but the United Nations recognizes the regions as Georgian.

Russian gunman yesterday were spotted patrolling Crimean streets in military vehicles and also took over two airports, according to the Ukrainian ambassador to the United Nations. The news prompted accusations by Ukraine's pro-Western interim leaders that Moscow had invaded.

Tensions also continue to mount over the ouster of Russian-backed Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, following months of protests.

Yanukovych also came out of hiding in southern Russia to say Ukraine had been taken over by "bandits." All the threats had the country's largest airline canceling flights as the airspace over Crimea was closed. Meanwhile, the world waits and watches for what will happen next.

Herald wire services contributed to this report.