Newsday September 11, 2008
North Korea missile base could target U.S., analysts say
COMBINED NEWS SERVICES
WASHINGTON - North Korea has quietly built a long-range missile base that, according to independent analysts relying on new satellite images of the site and other data, "could deliver atomic bombs to the United States." Analysts provided images of the previously secret site to The Associated Press.
"This would be a facility to conduct a real flight-test program and develop something that you have some operational confidence in," John Pike, an imagery analyst with GlobalSecurity.org and one of the experts who first reviewed the information, told the AP. "It would suggest they have the intention to develop the capability ... to perfect a missile to deliver atomic bombs to the United States."
The news came as the chief of the South Korean National Intelligence Service said yesterday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il probably suffered a cerebral hemorrhage last month but that his condition is not critical and there is "no power vacuum" in the communist North.
Construction on the long-range missile base on North Korea's west coast began at least eight years ago, according to Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., senior analyst with Jane's Information Group, and Tim Brown with Talent-keyhole.com, a private satellite imagery analysis company.
Bermudez first located the site in early spring and they have tracked its construction using commercial and unclassified satellite imagery. "The primary purpose of the facility is to test," Bermudez told the AP in an interview last week.
A base capable of a long-range test could obviously be used in wartime to launch a missile that carried a warhead. "This is a clear indication North Korea is continuing its ballistic missile development," Bermudez said.
Bermudez is also unveiling the images on the defense Web site Janes.com and in the Sept. 17 edition of Jane's Defence Weekly.
He said the launchpad has been operational since 2005 but has not yet been used. He believes North Korea wants to use it to develop longer-range and more accurate ICBMs. It could also launch satellites into space.
Although North Korea has been long thought to want additional missile capability and test facilities, this is the first public disclosure of the new facility, according to Bermudez, Brown and Pike, who first reviewed the information last week.
Pike said the new facility represents a major step forward for North Korea's long-range missile program as it would allow multiple test flights in a short time, which is difficult at the smaller, original long-range missile launch site, Musudan-ni. "At the old facility, [a robust test program] just wasn't going to happen," he said.
A U.S. counterproliferation official said U.S. intelligence has been aware of the North Korean site for several years. He spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss classified information. North Korea has not used the new site, but could at any time, U.S. intelligence officials and the outside analysts said.
"There is no reason they couldn't launch in the near future," Brown told The Associated Press.
Construction has continued even as the U.S. government renewed its attempt to persuade North Korea to shut down its nuclear weapons program. Those negotiations do not address North Korea's long-range missile program, but would give North Korea much-desired economic and political incentives in exchange for giving up nuclear weapons.
The deal's future may be in doubt with news that Kim Jong Il may have been incapacitated by a stroke or other health crisis. Today, South Korean media reported that Kim had brain surgery after suffering a stroke around Aug. 15.
In South Korea, where there are legions of government, academic and journalistic observers of North Korea, a consensus emerged yesterday: Kim, who has a history of heart ailments, probably had a serious health setback last month, but the worst seems to be over and he is apparently lucid.
Briefing a parliamentary committee in Seoul, the intelligence chief, Kim Sung-ho, said Kim's condition is "manageable" and that he can be expected to recover, according to Won Hye-young, an assembly member who listened to the briefing.
"Although he is not in a state to walk around, he is conscious. ... We understand that he can control the situation and he is not in an unstable condition," the intelligence chief told the lawmakers, according to Won.
The National Intelligence Service also reported to the committee that it obtained reports showing Kim recently had surgery for an unspecified circulatory problem and his condition had much improved, an unnamed intelligence official told the AP.
© Copyright 2008, Newsday
