Today's Zaman August 21, 2008
Turkey frets over Cold War-type confrontation
The Russian Federation’s strong desire for regional expansionism in the Caucasus has ironically been laying fertile ground for probable tensions between NATO allies Turkey and the United States.
The conflict between Georgia and Russia broke out on Aug. 7, when Georgia launched an assault to wrest back control of the Moscow-backed breakaway region of South Ossetia, triggering a counteroffensive by Russian troops, who then advanced beyond South Ossetia into Georgia’s heartland.
Turkey is a close ally of Georgia, cooperating in the field of energy and providing the former Soviet Union country with critical military assistance and training. But it also has strategic ties with Russia, and trade between the two countries has grown tremendously in past years. Turkey is a key buyer of Russian natural gas, and experts estimate Turkish dependence on Russia for natural gas is up to 70 percent.
The government, concerned over escalation of the conflict, has had difficulty finding a way to react to the crisis that erupted on Aug. 7. After initial calls for an end to hostilities, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan flew to Russia and Georgia in a surprise move last Wednesday, calling on Russian and Georgian leaders to heed his proposal for a Caucasus pact.
Analysts say that US willingness to display a military presence in the Black Sea in response to Russia’s expansionist attitude will make it hard for Turkey, which straddles the boundary dividing Europe and Asia, and which through its position vis-à-vis the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits controls warm-water naval access of Russia, Ukraine and the Common-wealth of Independent States (CIS).
"Control of the straits between the Black and the Mediterranean Seas has long been a matter of keen interest to Russia, as well as other nations bordering the Black Sea. Historically, Russia has viewed such control as the sine qua non of its own sovereignty," reports GlobalSecurity.org.
Military activity in the Dardanelles and Bosporus straits is governed according to the stipulations of the Montreux Convention, a 1936 agreement ratified by Turkey, Great Britain, France, the USSR, Bulgaria, Greece, Germany, Yugoslavia and Japan (with reservations). While the US was not a signatory to the convention, it has historically always complied with its provisions.
During peacetime, light surface vessels (defined as warships displacing more than 100 tons but not above 10,000 tons) of all powers may pass through the straits providing they give prior notice to Turkey as required by the convention. Turkey may waive the notification requirement if the warships are passing through for the purpose of providing humanitarian assistance.
The convention applies specific individual and aggregate tonnage and numbers limits. These limitations effectively preclude the transit of capital ships and submarines of non-Black Sea powers through the straits, unless exempted under Article 17. Article 17 of the convention permits a naval force of any tonnage or composition to pay a courtesy visit of limited duration to a port in the straits at the invitation of the Turkish government. In such instances, the tonnage and numbers limitations of the convention do not apply. Warships of non-Black Sea powers may not remain in the Black Sea for longer than 21 days.
Officially, both Turkish and US officials have so far strongly denied the existence of a formal request from Washington to allow two US hospital ships to sail through the Turkish straits to Georgia.
The main concern voiced by analysts is the possibility of US pressuring Turkey for a revision of the Montreux Convention, although both Turkey and the US have officially ruled out such a possibility.
"There is nothing much to add to what Mr. Bryza told Washington reporters," US officials told Today's Zaman yesterday, referring to Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Matt Bryza's remarks, in which he said that the US is consulting with Turkey about bringing ships through the Dardanelles from the Mediterranean to the Black Sea to join in aid efforts for Georgia.
Washington would abide by the Montreux Convention, and the ships that the US is planning to send are not warships but naval cargo ships, Bryza told NTV news channel.
"We continue to look for possible sea routes, and we're working with Turkey to facilitate the transport of humanitarian assistance in the fastest way under the rules of the Montreux Convention," the same US officials, who wished to remain anonymous, also told Today's Zaman yesterday.
Responding to questions about reports alleging a US request for passage of two US ships through the straits, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said yesterday that no such US request had yet been conveyed to Ankara.
"As Turkey, we have the responsibility of maintaining regional peace in the event of such a request. We evaluate and discuss these [kinds of requests] with related institutions … with the utmost care before we make our decision. Those [reports] consist solely of rumors," he told reporters ahead of his departure to Baku.
"[The Montreux Convention] is an international and multi-party convention. It is not up to Turkey to make exceptions according to whether or not it is a humanitarian situation," Turkish officials involved in the issue told Today's Zaman over the weekend when asked about Ankara's probable response were the US to ask Turkey to make an exception concerning regulations of the Montreux Convention.
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