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The New York Times June 09, 2008

Iraq Closeup: The War in Numbers

A closer look at our coverage on Iraq.

American military deaths in Iraq fell recently to their lowest monthly total since the war began in 2003. In May, 19 soldiers died, down from 52 the month before. This graphic shows the rise and fall of deaths, week by week, month by month. The icasualties.org Web site is also a good source for tracking the number of military deaths.

Various factors have contributed to this decline. Some are technological, like the increased use of armored transport vehicles, including the massive MRAP. Other factors include better body armor and the greater use of Iraqi troops in operations.

But the U.S. military has been reluctant to hail the low death total as a milestone. Officials often stress that the security gains in recent months, while real, remain fragile. Also, the number of soldiers’ deaths is only one indicator of overall safety: Officials prefer to look more broadly at “security incidents,” which include attacks on Iraqis, whether lethal or not.

At first glance, those numbers also look encouraging. There were about 325 such incidents in the week that ended May 23, according to the U.S. military. That was the lowest number since March 2004.

But more and more of this data are provided by Iraqis, notably in counting the number of civilian Iraqi deaths. And there is much uncertainty exactly how reliable those numbers are, for both technical and sectarian reasons. Iraqis issue far fewer reports. Some Iraqi officials have been accused of inflating the number of civilian deaths; the Iraqi numbers are invariably higher than U.S. estimates.

The Times chief military correspondent, Michael R. Gordon, examined the security incidents in an article last year, given the mix of American and Iraqi data:

“American officials say the truth probably lies somewhere between the American and Iraqi estimates, which, they say, shows the value of considering Iraqi reports even if they are not entirely reliable.”

By examining more data from nonfatal attacks, instead of just tracking the deaths of the American soldiers, the U.S. military is able to build a more complete view of the violence faced by Iraqi citizens.

For readers looking to explore the numbers further, summaries recapping the Pentagon’s “significant activity” reports are available at GlobalSecurity.org, a defense research organization.