HSToday April 09, 2008
Hizbullah Rearming Could Have Far Reaching Implications for US
Terror network showing signs of preparing for escalation of attacks
By Joe Charlaff
At the inception of the second Lebanon war in July 2006, Hizbullah rained down nearly 4,000 rockets into northern Israel using Iranian Katyusha rockets (RAAD 40) with a payload of 45 lb each, and a range of approximately 45 miles.
Although the Israel air force succeeded in taking out most of the group's long range rockets, made and supplied by Iran, the ground forces were unsuccessful in halting the short range rocket fire that paralyzed most of the northern part of Israel.
Hizbullah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has publicly admitted that his organization is rearming and secretly transporting arms to south Lebanon - in blatant violation of Security Council Resolution 1701.
Since last August huge quantities of arms, including Russian-made antitank missiles, short- and long-range rockets, small arms, mines and ammunition have been smuggled into Lebanon from Syria and Iran.
According to senior Israeli defense officials, the Lebanon-based militant group has acquired new Iranian rockets with a range of 300 kilometers (185 miles) which now threaten most of Israel. This enables the guerrillas to strike anywhere in Israel's heavily populated centers, and reach as far south as Dimona, where Israel's nuclear reactor is located. According to GlobalSecurity.org Iran has a supplied a number of UAV's capable of carrying surveillance equipment as well as explosives, to Hezbollah in recent years.
The defense officials did not specify how many of the new rockets Hizbullah has obtained, but said that overall, Hizbullah now has substantially more rockets in its arsenal than the 14,000 it had before the conflict - likely more than double that number.
According to a reliable source of information in Beirut, who must remain anonymous, the Iranian budget for Hizbullah is not public knowledge, but it is estimated to run from hundreds of millions to $1 billion, not counting the money that Iran gave Hizbullah to rebuild after the 2006 war.
While Iranian missile supplies to Hizbullah, either by sea or overland via Syria, are well known, according to the officials, there were also indications that some of the rockets in Hizbullah's arsenal - including a 220-millimeter rocket used in a deadly attack on a railway site in Haifa - were built in Syria.
At a recent briefing of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, a senior military intelligence officer told members that Hizbullah is rearming and preparing for a new escalation as a result of an anticipated operation against Israel along the northern border. He said that a great deal of activity had been identified and that the group is growing stronger on all levels, improving its systems, its units, and is receiving a substantial quantity of weapons and increasing its medium and long range missile capability.
Fears have mounted in the defense establishment that Hizbullah may fly an explosives-packed drone into Israel in retaliation for Israel's alleged assassination of Imad Mughiyeh in Damascus early this year. During the Lebanon war in 2006 Hizbullah launched four unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV's) at Israel. All were Iranian-made, have a known range of 93 miles, can reach approx 180 mph, and carry 99 lbs of high grade explosive.
The rearming of Hizbullah could have far reaching implications for the US who have a presence in the Middle East. According to Dr. Ely Karmon, senior researcher at the Institute for Counter Terrorism (ICT) at the Inter Disciplinary Center at Herzliya, the moment Hizbullah feels it is strong enough it could take control in Lebanon ousting Siniora's pro- Western government. The Lebanese army would be no match for the terror group who now number some 30, 000 fighters. The US supports the present Lebanese government, and at present is showing its support with the presence of the USS Cole.
Hizbullah could misread the US military presence as an imminent threat. The assassination of Hizbullah leader Imad Mugniyeh on February 12, has put the Islamist party on high alert. Hassan Nasrallah used Mugniyeh's death to escalate his rhetoric, proclaiming an "open war" against Israel. If Hizbullah is convinced that a military confrontation with Israel and the United States is inevitable, the group may opt for a pre-emptive strike against Israel, or a final push to topple Siniora's government which would seriously test the US show of support.
Joe Charlaff writes on security issues from Jerusalem. He wrote, "Hardening the Holy Land," in the October 2007 issue of HSToday. He also writes for Monitor, which is part of Jane’s Defense Weekly group of publications in London.
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