The News & observer March 20, 2008
Fact checker: An Iraq pullout could leave a mess behind
By Jay Price
Pulling 3,500 to 10,000 U.S. troops out of Iraq each month, as Barack Obama proposes, would be easy enough, if you consider only logistics, said John Pike, a military and security analyst who runs GlobalSecurity.org.
After all, the United States routinely moves that many troops back and forth.
"Piece of cake," he said. "In fact, we could pull all of them out in one month. Just pack everything up, tell them to blow up what they couldn't take and fight their way out."
The problem is what happens after they leave.
He cited a former Obama senior foreign policy adviser who told the BBC that Obama's 16-month withdrawal plan was a best-case scenario, not a firm plan.
"When Samantha Power committed the truth a few weeks back, she was just saying what any rational person knows --that if you say that we can just pull out, that implies that you are willing to accept the consequences," Pike said.
Fluctuations in troop levels show that President Bush has already tried to start pulling out troops several times, Pike said, but was forced to reconsider because of the threat of widening violence.
Another problem he cited is that Iraqi security forces lack a supply chain and can't operate one because of problems with theft.
"If we left supply to the Iraqis, it would all get stolen before it got to the front-line troops, and everything would fall apart," he said.
About half of the U.S. troops in Iraq are support troops who supply not only U.S. forces but also Iraqis.
"Could we get more American combat troops out by the end of the decade?" Pike said. "Maybe. But the 75,000 support troops, that would take a little longer. And someone is going to have to protect those troops, too."
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