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The Boston Herald September 10, 2007

Petraeus to tell pols: GI surge must go on

By Jessica Van Sack

In the most anticipated assessment of the war since it began, U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus is expected today to press for the continuation of a controversial troop surge, saying it has already slashed sectarian violence in half in Baghdad.

“In fact, the number of attacks across the country has declined in eight of the past 11 weeks, reaching during the last week in August a level not seen since June 2006,” Petraeus wrote in a letter to troops on Friday, previewing his long-awaited progress report this week to Congress with Ambassador Ryan Crocker.

The Democratic-led Congress has pushed President Bush - unsuccessfully so far - to begin withdrawing troops from Iraq. Bush has refused, demanding that Congress wait to hear from Petraeus and Crocker. Meanwhile, some Republicans have joined Democrats in calling for withdrawals, while some Democrats, citing progress in Iraq, have switched to support the war.

Not since Gen. Creighton Abrams, who replaced Gen. William Westmoreland in Vietnam, “has the political leadership looked to a military man to resolve a war many people feel has gone badly,” said Ret. Brig. Kevin Ryan, of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. “It’s a first for this generation.”

Petraeus will also reportedly accept a small and gradual cut in the 168,000 garrison next year and acknowledge that Iraq’s nascent government has failed to make progress in bringing about sectarian reconciliation.

“It has not worked out as we had hoped,” Petraeus wrote.

Rep. Brian Baird (D-Wash.) recently proclaimed his support of the surge after years of being a war critic. But many Democrats are accusing Petraeus of spin.

“The bottom line is the latest escalation in Iraq has not led to the political reconciliation the president promised would happen,” said Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass). “We need a deadline to get Iraqis to make the tough compromises necessary to end their civil war, to get Iraqis to stand up for Iraq and to bring our brave soldiers home.”

Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, appearing on CBS, said, “This is a cockamamy policy. (We) are putting our servicemen and women to be held hostage, effectively, to what Iraqi politicians are going to do, and they are going to continue to lose lives over there, into the future is completely unacceptable.”

International security expert John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org said today’s report means President Bush won’t allow any significant troop withdrawal. “The president has made it clear that Iraq may or may not fall apart, but it’s not going to fall apart during his presidency,” he said.

Brandeis University professor Jacob Cohen said he expects Petraeus’ report to subdue Democratic calls for an immediate withdrawal. “This is the surge that Democrats declared a defeat even before all the troops were in,” Cohen said.

Andrew Bacevich, a professor of international relations at Boston University, said the debate over what to do in Iraq has concentrated too much on near-term gains.

“To gauge the success against an insurgency on month-to-month data is to set yourself up for a surprise,” said Bacevich, a retired Army colonel and a vocal critic of the war. “The argument in Washington - Is the surge working? Is the surge not working? - is a debate that does not show sufficient awareness of the overarching strategic issues that are at hand.”