NY Daily News July 22, 2007
Terror pros agree: We still aren't safe
By James Gordon Meek
WASHINGTON - Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff's "gut feeling" last week about the rising possibility of terror attacks gave a lot of people heartburn. Americans wondered: how could we be under such threat after all President Bush said he did to destroy Al Qaeda?
If that wasn't bad enough, a government intelligence report concluded that the thugs who hit us on 9/11 have "regenerated." They are stronger than they've been in years - even after billions of dollars, millions of bombs, bullets and missiles, and losing over 4,000 brave G.I.s since 2001.
Are we losing that war?
The Daily News asked a panel of four top experts with decades of experience in counterterrorism, analysis and intelligence to grade America's performance in the war on terror.
Turns out they've got a bad feeling in their guts too. The overall effort rates no better than a "C."
One critical category was graded "F": Militant Islam is spreading across the Middle East, Africa, Asia and Europe, and U.S. policy is making it worse. Many Muslims are furious about the Iraq war. Since the 2003 invasion, the roster of groups loyal to Al Qaeda has mushroomed.
"What this war has unleashed is incalculable," said panelist Karen Greenberg, director of NYU's Center on Law and Security.
Robert Grenier, a former top CIA official who is now managing director at Kroll, a leading risk-assessment company, agreed, saying, "We're doing badly." New dangers will come from foreign fighters returning home from Iraq "like hot embers flying out of a fire," he added.
Rep. Pete King (R-L.I.) said he remains convinced invading Iraq was right. "When you hit the hornet's nest, you're going to have a severe reaction," he said.
Panelists James Bamford, an intelligence writer, and John Pike, a defense analyst at GlobalSecurity.org, said Bush's shoot-first mind-set gives short shrift to trying to understand the Muslim world.
"It's a Clint Eastwood-style, 'Make-my-day' foreign policy," Bamford said.
A mixed grade went to border security, where the experts raised alarms about the largely unguarded 3,000-mile border with Canada, where many terrorists have quietly infiltrated.
"You could swim across," said Bamford.
Even at official crossing points, controls are lax. Greenberg pointed to how a Border Patrol officer let tuberculosis carrier Andrew Speaker enter upstate New York from Quebec even though his name was on a list.
"I don't feel safe," Greenberg said.
Despite good cooperation with Canada, the northern border "isn't well-protected," King said.
Transit is another source of anxiety. Pike noted that many of the deadliest attacks in Europe since 9/1l have been on trains and buses, "yet we seem to have decided this is too hard to think about, so we aren't going to do much."
"We are one Madrid bombing away from focusing on rails," Grenier said, referring to the deadly 2004 blasts.
Port security also is a problem. Greenberg said policymakers have focused too much on large cargo containers and not enough on smaller ships.
We've also had incomplete success nailing Al Qaeda operatives, though the fact that America hasn't been attacked since 9/11 is a sign of good work, Pike said.
Greenberg called the failure to take down Osama Bin Laden and his deputy Ayman Al-Zawahiri "disgraceful."
We're doing better on two other fronts - intelligence gathering and aviation security. King said aviation is easier to secure "because it's a very controlled environment."
But Greenberg suggested we ought to use more human judgment at airports instead of technological gizmos.
Another success has been with intelligence-gathering and information sharing, demonstrated by the recently foiled JFK Airport plot. Grenier said spooks could do even better by giving cops more information to assess the credibility of intelligence.
The worst fear of anyone who follows terrorism is that Al Qaeda or its affiliates will detonate a weapon of mass destruction to kill scores of civilians. A year ago, a Bin Laden lieutenant from Libya was on video saying Muslims "should try hard" to get nuclear and biological weapons.
But intelligence officials said last week that Al Qaeda is not close to unleashing that kind of catastrophe.
"Something we're doing is making this too hard for the evildoers to think about," Pike said.
Grenier agreed, but said weapons such as loose nukes and anthrax are incredibly hard to track.
We've stayed safe since 9/11, he said, but with an implacable, fanatical and secretive enemy, America's terror-hunters recognize all too well the ultimate, sobering truth:
"You don't know what you don't know."
© Copyright 2007, NY Daily News
