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United Press International May 24, 2007

Analysis: Is China a military threat?

By Claude Salhani

WASHINGTON, May 24 (UPI) -- How much of a threat is China's growing military to the security of the United States?
China's investment in its military, from conventional weapons to cybersystems, along with its lack of openness regarding its intent, raises the possibility of a miscalculation that could spark a conflict with the United States, according to U.S. security policy experts.

So too could the perennial increases in its military spending. According to GlobalSecurity.org, China's official defense budget for 2000 was approximately $14.6 billion. It was increased the following year by 17.7 percent.

In 2001 China acknowledged its defense budget to be more than $17 billion, a figure higher than the defense budgets of India, Taiwan and South Korea combined. In 2002 China again increased military spending by 17.6 percent, or $3 billion, bringing the reported total to $20 billion.

The following year China once more increased military spending to $22 billion. Again, that figure grew by another 11.6 percent in 2004 to $2.6 billion. And in 2005 China raised its military budget another 12.6 percent, to $29.9 billion.

For the current year China's military expenditure is expected to hover around $44.94 billion. That's a jump of some $30 billion in just seven years.

In terms of manpower, China has 2.25 million troops, 800,000 reserves and nearly 4 million paramilitary forces, a total of more than 7 million. Compare that to the United States, which has 1.4 million active military personnel, 858,500 reserves and 53,000 paramilitary, a total of 2.3 million personnel.

But despite having the world's largest military force, China's army is smaller per capita than those of many countries, including the United States. Furthermore, some experts see the very size of the Chinese army as a hindrance to modernization. According to Foreign Policy in Focus, China cannot afford adequate pay, training or modern weapons for most of its forces. China will not be able to develop modern military forces unless it either greatly increases military spending (which seems unlikely) or drastically cuts the size of its forces.

With the number of troops presently in uniform, China can defend its territory, but its capacity for external aggression is minimal.

Yet Americans do not seem to be too preoccupied by China's military strength and expenditure, according to a new UPI-Zogby International poll. The poll, which has a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points, was carried out May 16-18 and had 5,141 U.S. residents as respondents.

Only 7.2 percent of Americans believe China represents a military threat to the United States, and even fewer -- 2.3 percent -- believe the issue of Taiwan could strain relations with China. China's occupation of Tibet ranked a meager 2 percent.

As for President George W. Bush's handling of relations with China, 40.9 percent give him "poor" marks, 23.2 percent rate him "fair," 21.1 percent "good," and 4.3 percent give him an "excellent" rating.

More than half of those polled -- 53.7 percent -- said they have a somewhat favorable opinion of the Chinese people, but only 4.8 percent have similar feelings for the Chinese government.

When asked whether China is a threat to U.S. national security, an economic threat to the United States or an economic partner and an ally, 21.7 percent of respondents said China is a threat to national security, 59.8 percent said China was more of an economic threat to the United States, and 5.7 percent believe China to be an economic partner and an ally.

Regarding China's continuing military buildup, 29.7 percent said they were "very concerned" while 2.9 percent showed "no concern at all." As far as China's threat to U.S. national security, 18.7 percent believe the communist country poses "a great threat," while a minority -- 3.7 percent -- see "no threat at all from China."

Although Taiwan barely registered as an issue of contention between the two nuclear powers, about half of the nearly 6,000 Americans polled -- 53.5 percent -- believe the United States has a responsibility to defend Taiwan, should it be attacked by China, while 36 percent disagree. About 45 percent of Americans believe China is a threat to stability in East Asia, and 63.8 percent fear China's space program.

Regarding the war on terror, only a tiny minority -- 1.8 percent -- of Americans believe China is a valid partner in the global war on terror; 18.2 percent "somewhat agree," but the majority, 63.6 percent, disagree.