Boston Herald March 29, 2007
Escalation to combat unlikely, experts say
By Emma Ratliff
Even as tensions appear to be rising in the Iranian-British hostage crisis, military and foreign policy experts say they don’t expect it to lead to direct combat between the United States and Iran.
But they warn dealings with Iran are unpredictable.
“I don’t see that there is a military course of action that would do anything but get these sailors killed,” said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, a security consulting firm.
On Friday, 15 British sailors and marines were taken hostage. Iran has claimed they trespassed into Iranian waters.
“At this point, we’re pretty sure they will release them. The Iranians don’t want this headache,” said British Maj. Charles Heyman, editor of Jane’s World Armies. “Even the Iranians can’t paint this into something larger than a border violation.
“There may have been some bargaining behind the scenes with the hostages and the Iranians taken in January,” Heyman said. But he doubts the British and Americans have been willing to make a trade, he said. The United States is holding several Iranians who were captured in Iraq and allegedly involved in supporting militias and insurgents.
The experts said that despite heightened rhetoric, they believe the British detainees’ release could be imminent.
“It would take a series of miscalculations for these hostages not to be released,” said Peter Ziehan of Stratfor.com, a commercial intelligence firm. But, he warned, “the history of the U.S. relationship with Iran has been a series of miscalculations.”
“If they don’t release them, that would turn international powers against Iran. It will make them the bad guys,” Ziehan said.
Pike said: “This thing is going to be worked out with Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan, they will have to tell Iran to knock it off. This is not the way things need to be done. Adult supervision will have to intervene.
“Iran could dig in their heels and these sailors might be there for a long time,” Pike said. But he doubts this incident will be the ultimate trigger for war, he said.
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