The Associated Press February 13, 2007
Analysis: U.S. troops in for long haul
By Tom Raum
WASHINGTON - A lesson of history hangs over debate on President Bush's troop buildup in Iraq: Once a U.S. presence is established overseas, it often lasts a very long time. Look at South Korea, Germany and Japan: U.S. troops are still there more than a half century later.
Short of being kicked out by the Iraqi government or having funds cut off by Congress, U.S. forces seem likely to be in for a long stay.
Bush has said flatly that U.S. troops will still be in Iraq when his term ends in January 2009 and that his successor will inherit the conflict. Few disagree, despite talk among some Democrats in Congress and on the campaign trail of withdrawals and exit timetables.
The House on Tuesday began debating a nonbinding resolution expressing disapproval of Iraq policy, a week after Republicans blocked a similar measure in the Senate. "There is no end in sight," under Bush's present strategy, said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Bush's goal has been, in a widely used administration phrase, "for U.S. troops to stand down as Iraqi troops stand up," with the Iraqi government fully taking over at some unspecified time. His increase of 21,500 troops is supposed to hasten that day.
But when? Neither the White House nor senior congressional Republicans can say.
"I don't know anyone can give you an informed answer," said Sen. John Warner, R-Va., a former Navy secretary who fought in the Korean War as a Marine.
Warner doesn't believe, however, that there is a parallel "at this time" with the long U.S. experience in South Korea. He said he agreed with the president's assertion that it was not in U.S., regional or world interest "to let this government collapse and fail."
White House spokesman Tony Snow said it would be "presumptuous" to try to look too far. "We do look down the road ... but there is vast amount of uncertainty from one month to the next, let alone one year to the next."
Optimists cite other postwar stabilization forces. Pessimists cite Vietnam.
Vietnam is not a place where U.S. forces remain, to be sure. But getting out took a long time. President Johnson, stunned by anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy's strong primary-season showing, announced in early 1968 he wouldn't run for re-election.
Richard Nixon was elected later that year on a platform that included ending the war. But it was not until January 1973 that the Paris Peace Accords officially halted U.S. combat action. Even then, an American presence remained until the Saigon government fell in April 1975.
Asked how long the U.S. might remain in Iraq, Rep. C.W. Bill Young of Florida, the ranking Republican on a House panel overseeing military spending, responded with his own question: "How long were we in Bosnia? We didn't have anywhere near the problems in Bosnia that we had in Iraq, and we just last year came out of Bosnia."
Then-President Clinton declared in early 1996 - shortly after a U.S. brokered peace agreement - that American forces would stay in Bosnia just one year. So much for setting timetables.
American forces are deployed in roughly 130 countries around the world, performing a variety of duties from combat to peacekeeping to training foreign militaries, according to GlobalSecurity.org, a defense-oriented think tank. There are about 141,000 U.S. troops in Iraq and 27,000 in Afghanistan, the Pentagon said Tuesday.
"One could see reasons to have 30,000 to 50,000 troops that would continue to serve as a backup force for the Iraqis - if the situation stabilized and Iraq remained united," said P.J. Crowley, an official with both the National Security Council and Pentagon in the Clinton administration.
In South Korea, about 29,500 U.S. troops are stationed as a deterrent against the communist North, but that number is to decline to 24,500 by 2008 as part of the Pentagon's worldwide realignment of its forces. The two Koreas remain technically at war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a cease-fire, not a peace treaty.
In the latest wrinkle, a multiparty disarmament pact was announced Tuesday in which North Korea agreed to halt its nuclear programs in exchange for oil. The deal was seen as a major foreign-policy breakthrough for the administration.
Kurt Campbell, a former Asia specialist at the Pentagon, sees big differences between Iraq and South Korea. "Essentially, despite an occasional anti-American upheaval, South Korea has always been a stable and relatively welcoming environment for U.S. forces and their families." Not so Iraq.
Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said it "could be many years" before the U.S. leaves Iraq. "But the key is not troop presence. The key is troop casualties." He said that while U.S. troops have been in Korea for more than 50 years, "No one minds because they're not in combat, they're not being killed."
Associated Press writer Anne Flaherty contributed to this report.
© Copyright 2007, The Associated Press
