Intelligencer Journal January 31, 2007
Chinese Fireworks
The world woke up Jan. 11 to Chinese fireworks, but it wasn't a holiday show.
Beijing used a ballistic missile to blast one of its own weather satellites into space scrap. It did this without informing any other nation, and for two weeks thereafter it did not own up to the shot.
The target was a dead satellite of no use to anyone. It was orbiting the Earth at an altitude of about 530 miles. That is roughly the operational altitude of important American spy satellites, like the Lacrosse and Advanced Keyhole orbiters.
And that is unlikely to be a coincidence.
Said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, "Our space assets ... are absolutely central to why we are a superpower - a signature component to America's style of warfare."
Beijing's army - the world's largest, with 2.25 million active troops - is its spear, but increasingly the Chinese have sought to fit it with a high-tech tip. China has poured money into submarines, missiles, jet fighters, high-energy lasers and other sophisticated weapons systems.
Destroying American spy satellites would not knock out the U.S. in a war; our aircraft could still overfly the battlefield. But it would be a desirable goal for a nation at war with the U.S.
More ominously, a satellite-killing capability would allow the Chinese to menace commercial satellites and all they control - from worldwide telephone communication to the Global Positioning System to weather forecasting.
This is the next arms race, and it has been brewing for some time.
The Bush administration reversed a Clinton-era policy that committed itself to international treaties to demilitarize space. An anonymous State Department official recently laid out the Bush approach in certain terms:
"Arms control is not a viable solution for space. For example, there is no agreement on how to define a space weapon. Without a definition you are left with loopholes and meaningless limitations that endanger national security. No arms control is better than bad arms control."
Ah, well; some of us learned something in the Cold War after all. Anti-ballistic missile treaties meant less than the paper they were printed on when one side regarded them merely as a cover for cheating.
Naturally, then, the Chinese are provoked.
As one combative Chinese military voice put it, "We hope ... (this) will smack the American carnivores back to reason. History shows us that if you don't hit Americans, they aren't willing to sit down at the negotiation table."
Yes, after you get done fretting about Iraq and Iran, the real 800-pound gorilla is waiting to meet you. He wants to negotiate.
© Copyright 2007, Intelligencer Journal
