The Globe and Mail January 06, 2007
Ethiopian operation dovetails with U.S. aims
Whether involved in the Somalia invasion or not, the U.S. was glad to see the Islamists routed, PAUL KORING writes
By Paul Koring
WASHINGTON -- Ethiopia's successful military thrust into Somalia bears the hallmarks of a decisive and well-co-ordinated operation that meshes seamlessly with the Bush administration's aims in the Horn of Africa.
So unconfirmed reports of U.S. marines deployed near Somalia's Kenyan border, of U.S. warships close offshore intercepting small boats and spy planes targeting fleeing Islamic fighters for Ethiopian helicopter gunships all suggested covert U.S. military and intelligence assistance.
The Pentagon denies any involvement. Not everyone is convinced.
"Overt, no; covert, surely," says John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington-based defence and security group. "It would be scandalous if it wasn't," he added, referring to the Bush administration's self-defined strategic imperative of toppling Islamic extremist regimes.
"There was no way that America was going to abide a Somali version of the Taliban," he said yesterday in an interview.
While the Pentagon openly admits that U.S. warships are keeping watch in international waters off Somalia, it disavows any direct involvement in the Ethiopian military campaign that ousted the Islamic Courts from Mogadishu.
Close observers of Somalia and military analysts remain divided over the degree of U.S. involvement, if any. What is certain is that the invasion by Ethiopia, an acknowledged U.S. ally in the strife-torn Horn of Africa, was accepted if not encouraged by the Bush administration.
Fears that Somalia, already regarded as a dangerous and failed state, would become a full-blown haven and training ground for Islamic jihadists was only part of the reason that Washington established a base for special-operations forces in nearby Djibouti. Ever since 2001, the entire region has been a focus for U.S. spies and Washington's clandestine military operations. Suspected terrorists have been killed by missiles launched from unmanned drones, murky "security" companies have won big-ticket contracts for undisclosed missions and rumours of bounties and funding for shady warlords abound.
Nevertheless, the reality behind the current toppling of an Islamic regime in Mogadishu may be less romantic than the rumours.
"There's no evidence that there was overt action by U.S. military forces," said Michael Weinstein, an expert on Somalia and senior analyst with The Power and Interest News Report. He believes there may have been some intelligence sharing but said it was "politically important that the U.S. not be linked too closely with the Ethiopian military invasion."
Still, the whole point of "covert" is that the operations aren't known, or remain plausibly deniable as long as they are politically inconvenient.
The Bush administration's focus on anti-terrorist operations, its undisguised hostility toward the Islamic Courts, which it accused of having links to al-Qaeda, and a tantalizing trail of circumstantial evidence bolster suggestions that Ethiopia's admittedly powerful military may have been getting some help.
Despite the apparent, and perhaps only early success, of the Ethiopian military intervention, some leading analysts don't regard that as evidence of significant U.S. involvement.
"It may be the case that the [Central Intelligence] agency had a finger in the operation, but it probably wasn't a hand," said William Arkin, a highly respected and widely read Internet analyst of U.S. intelligence and military affairs. Even if that were the case, Mr. Arkin said, it may have been operatives acting on the margins of, or outside, official policy.
Prior to Ethiopia's invasion of neighbouring Somalia, on the slimmest of grounds, the official position in Washington was against military intervention by the region's strongest power.
Vicki Huddleston, the recently retired former U.S. ambassador to Addis Abba, confirms "we were not blinking green lights" for the invasion.
If anything, she said yesterday in an interview, the "worry was about the possibility of Ethiopia getting bogged down," in Somalia.
The fear remains that Somalis, even those delighted by the rout of the Islamic Courts, will quickly resent any lingering occupation by Ethiopian forces, especially if they are regarded as a U.S. proxy.
"The Americans and Ethiopians developed a plan, which has just been implemented," Mr. Pike said. But, he warned, it may be that not much has been accomplished. Nominal power has shifted but Somalia remains a largely ungoverned state, with local warlords, some regions largely autonomous and, now, a call to jihad from al-Qaeda to oust the infidel Ethiopian invaders.
In a call to arms against the "crusader" invaders, top al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri urged Somalis to "launch ambushes, land mines, raids and suicidal combats until you consume them as the lions eat their prey."
Somalia as an African version of southern Afghanistan or Iraq, with U.S.-backed forces mired in a bloody struggle billed as jihad, may represent the darkest vision of the country's future.
Others are less pessimistic.
Ms. Huddleston regards the Ethiopian intervention as opening a window, albeit briefly, for the internationally recognized transitional government led by Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi to broaden its base. She also believes that a rapid replacement of Ethiopian troops by an African peacekeeping force led by Uganda is crucial to any political success.
Like many others, David Mozersky, Horn of Africa project director for the International Crisis Group, said Ethiopia's military triumph has come as a surprise.
"It's created an opportunity that needs to be taken," to end the anarchy and violence of Somalia as a failed state for the past 15 years.
© Copyright 2007, CTVglobemedia Publishing Inc.
