North County Times November 09, 2006
Rumsfeld's departure may bring little change in deployment schedule
By Joe Beck
Members of the military and their families shouldn't expect the departure of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to slow the pace of deployments to Iraq, three experts on military policy said Wednesday.
Rumsfeld's tenure as secretary of defense ended Wednesday with his resignation in the aftermath of strong gains by Democrats in House and Senate elections. Many Democratic and Republican candidates in this year's elections blamed Rumsfeld for allowing an insurgency to begin in Iraq and the subsequent failure of U.S. and Iraqi forces to quell it.
President Bush announced Wednesday that he had chosen former CIA Director Robert Gates as Rumsfeld's successor.
The impetus for any change leading to fewer deployments is more likely to come from a presidential commission studying the Iraq conflict, said Winslow Wheeler, director of the Straus Military Reform project at the Center for Defense Information in Washington, D.C. The commission is led by James Baker, a close aide to former President George H.W. Bush and former U.S. Rep. Lee Hamilton.
"It's not going to be up to Gates," Wheeler said. "It's going to be up to the Baker-Hamilton commission. They will define the new conventional wisdom both to Democrats and George W. Bush on the path out of Iraq."
The commission may have a hard time producing answers for politicians eager to show the public a credible plan for leaving Iraq, said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a prominent Web site that focuses on national security issues.
"I think changing the secretary of defense is about the only thing you can change. I don't know what Gates is going to do," Pike said.
As an example of a new secretary's lack of potential for changes in war, Pike cited President Lyndon Johnson's decision to replace Robert McNamara as head of the Pentagon during the Vietnam War. The war dragged on for several years after Clark Clifford replaced McNamara.
"It seems to me, for the next year or two, I don't see how you can expect to have substantial reductions in American troops over there without the risk of the whole thing falling apart," said Pike, whose site offers information but little political opinion.
Daniel Goure, vice president of the Lexington Institute, a conservative-leaning think tank on military issues, was even more skeptical about the significance of the Gates appointment.
"There is no evidence that Gates differs one iota from Secretary Rumsfeld or the president in his approach to Iraq," Goure said. "As I heard the president at his press conference today, that was perhaps a requirement for the job."
The shakeup in Pentagon leadership drew a mixed reaction among members of the House of Representatives from North County and Riverside counties. U.S. Rep. Mary Bono, R-Palm Springs, praised Rumsfeld, despite the heavy criticism he has received from some of their colleagues, Democrat and Republican.
"I believe that Secretary Rumsfeld made his decision with the country's best interest in mind, and the secretary should be commended for his commitment to serving our nation as a public servant under extraordinary changes in national security," said Bono, whose district covers parts of Southwest Riverside County.
Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-El Cajon, told KFMB-TV that Rumsfeld probably saw himself in a troubled relationship with the new Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and decided it was time to resign. The Democrats win on Tuesday also means that Hunter will lose his chairmanship of the House Armed Services Committee.
"He leaves America with the strongest military we've had in our history," Hunter said of Rumsfeld. "That's a good legacy."
Rep Darrell Issa, R-Vista, issued a statement through a spokesman welcoming Rumsfeld's resignation, a continuation of recent statements from Issa showing dissatisfaction with the Bush administration.
"It was the president's decision, and it was time for it," said Frederick Hill, a member of Issa's staff.
© Copyright 2006, North County Times - Lee Enterprises
