The Associated Press July 6, 2006
Firings stir little insight, much alarm
By Tom Raum
WASHINGTON - North Korea's missile tests suggested that the country can't directly threaten the United States -- for now. But the Koreans can learn from mistakes, whether the tests were posturing, serious military efforts or both, U.S. officials and military experts said.
North Korea test-fired a seventh missile Wednesday after it had defied international protests by launching a long-range missile and at least five shorter-range weapons the day before.
The long-range Taepodong-2 missile -- the object of intense international attention for more than a month -- failed 42 seconds after liftoff, suggesting a catastrophic failure of the rocket's first stage.
That encouraged U.S. officials, since an earlier version of the long-range missile last tested in 1998 failed later in its flight, apparently due to a third-stage malfunction. A working version of the intercontinental missile could potentially reach the United States with a light payload.
"One thing we have learned is that the rocket didn't stay up for very long," President Bush said. "It tumbled into the sea."
Still, rocket scientists cautioned against rushing to interpret the latest failure as backsliding by North Korea, noting that major glitches happen even in the well-advanced U.S. rocket program.
Of the other missiles that were launched, apparently none failed. But they were all known quantities. They were a mix of short-range Scud missiles and moderate-range Rodong missiles.
"The others were not test flights," asserted John Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org, a Washington-based military think tank. He suggested that the launches were intended to put Asian neighbors on notice. "There was something for everyone. Scuds for South Korea. And at least one Rodong for Japan," Pike said.
Other scientists said that useful information could still have been obtained from the missile launches, even if they were not intended expressly as test flights.
Either way, the tests offered little new insight into North Korea's strength and intentions. They did generate widespread international alarm and propel the U.N. Security Council into an emergency session to consider a response.
Investigators from the Pentagon and other agencies pored over information on the launches gleaned from satellite and other surveillance.
Anthony H. Cordesman, an analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former Pentagon intelligence official, said one piece of useful intelligence the United States should be able to obtain is more detailed information on the structure and size of the multistage missile in the moments before it blew up.
Still, the data now available, including the apparently successful flights of the shorter-range missiles, suggest that North Korea is primarily focusing on missiles that can strike targets in Asia and not the U.S., with the possible exception of Guam, Cordesman concluded.
Why the Taepodong-2 failed is not yet clear. But U.S. officials said North Korean engineers could learn from the failure. They also said the launches of the short-range Scud and the medium-range Rodong missiles show that North Korea still has them and knows how to use them
© Copyright 2006, The Associated Press
