Media General News Service July 6, 2006
Questions mark missile defense
By James W. Crawley
WASHINGTON - North Korea's Fourth of July fireworks may have fizzled, but some military analysts wonder whether America could have stopped missiles aimed at the United States.
After weeks of anticipation, the North Korean rockets' red glare on radar and computer monitors at military command centers in Colorado and at the Pentagon Tuesday likely caused a flurry of excitement -- but only for a few minutes.
Military officials said they tracked seven launches, including a long-range Taepodong-2 missile, and quickly determined that none of the missiles was a danger to the United States. All crashed harmlessly into the ocean.
What if the Taepodong-2 -- the rocket some experts fear could hit the West Coast -- had worked? Could the U.S. have shot it down?
Maybe. It depends.
"It's a very thin defense right now," said Baker Spring, an analyst with the conservative Heritage Foundation.
Currently, 11 interceptor missiles wait in silos at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. About 10 smaller interceptor missiles are deployed on several warships in the Pacific. Both are designed to shot down enemy long-range missiles.
The defense system is so thin that Spring suggested the best way today to deal with a North Korean nuclear-tipped missile aimed at this country would be a preemptive strike -- bombing the launch site before lift-off.
One or two incoming missiles could be shot down, said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, an independent think tank. If three missiles are simultaneously fired at the U.S., the odds drop significantly, he added.
And, that's if everything on the U.S. side works as planned.
Shooting down a missile looks easy in the movies. In real life, it's like hitting a speeding bullet with a speeding bullet, but much harder because these "bullets" are in space and traveling thousands of miles per hour.
So far, the Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency has a 5-5 record for hitting dummy warheads. Critics note those tests were skewed because they were not realistic.
With so few interceptor missiles and a 50-50 "kill ratio," Pike said just a few enemy missiles could overwhelm U.S. missile defenses and explode on U.S. soil.
The Pentagon says it is working through the problems and the ground-based interceptors are operational -- in a limited manner.
But, the Government Accountability Office reported in March that the defense system was behind schedule and over budget.
And, it added, quality-control problems might cause launch failures similar to two test failures.
Protecting America from incoming ICBMs has cost taxpayers about $90 billion during the past 21 years. The administration has proposed spending another $58 billion over the next six years.
Twenty years, Ronald Reagan predicted that by now, the Strategic Defense Initiative -- the so-called Star Wars program -- and its space-based lasers, killer satellites and ground-based missiles would destroy any nuclear missiles the Soviets could shoot.
The Soviet Union collapsed and Star Wars died with the Cold War.
A more limited missile defense system was envisioned by the first Bush administration, but it developed slowly during the Clinton administration.
When George W. Bush entered the White House in 2001, he boosted the anti-missile program, arguing that it would defend against rogue nations, like North Korea.
By 2010, 36 ground-based interceptors should be operational.
We're paying the price for inaction during the Clinton years, argued Heritage's Spring. But, thanks to a revitalized program, he said missile defense will provide us some security.
But, Pike said, the United States is years from having a workable missile defense.
"If they really believed in it, people (in Washington) would be saying it's time to take (Korean leader Kim Jong-Il) down a notch," Pike said. "When you hear people talking like that, you'll know they have confidence that the contraption works."
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