USA Today July 5, 2006
Analysts: Launches may not be the last
North Korea has test-fired seven missiles since Tuesday, the Pentagon said Wednesday.
Six were short-range missiles, and the seventh was believed capable of hitting the continental USA. That's a grave concern because North Korea is believed to have several nuclear weapons. However, the long-range Taepodong-2 missile failed less than one minute into its flight.
Q: What's the significance of the Taepodong-2's failure?
A: A failure at 50 seconds into flight — the point of highest stress on the missile — could indicate a structural problem with the missile, said John Pike, a military analyst at GlobalSecurity.org. But Pike and others note that it's too early to pinpoint a cause.
Q: Does North Korea have more Taepodong-2 missiles?
A: North Korea may be able to produce as many as 12 per year, Pike said. North Korea has parts and the fuel needed to build more missiles, said Jon Wolfstahl, a non-proliferation analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He doubts it has a large stockpile.
Q: How soon could North Korea launch another Taepodong-2 missile?
A: If North Korea has another missile available, it could be a matter of weeks, Pike said. Wolfstahl estimated anywhere from six to 60 months before the next launch.
Q: Do the North Koreans have the ability to build a missile that can carry a nuclear warhead?
A: They might. The North Koreans have been cooperating with Pakistan, which can field nuclear weapons, and may have shared the technology, Pike said. Wolfstahl said it would take years for the Koreans to shrink their nuclear devices enough to fit on a missile.
Q: What could sanctions do to limit North Korea's ability to launch more long-range missiles?
A: It would depend on China. If China agreed to harsh sanctions, they could cripple North Korea's government and economy. "China has the big hammer," said Ashton Carter, a Harvard professor and former assistant Defense secretary in the Clinton administration. But China hasn't been willing to back harsh sanctions from the United Nations. China fears a refugee crisis on its border if the North Korean government unravels, said Ted Galen Carpenter, a foreign policy analyst at the Cato Institute. China spends about $2 billion annually in trade and investment in North Korea, according to the International Crisis Group's website.
Q: What options does the United States have?
A: The main option is diplomatic. The so-called six party talks — which included the United States, North and South Korea, China, Japan and Russia — concluded in November without producing a breakthrough on North Korea's nuclear program. The United States backs a multinational approach but won't rule out any options.
Q: When have the United States and North Korea participated in talks?
A: In 1994, the two countries signed an agreement in which North Korea agreed to freeze and dismantle its nuclear weapons program in exchange for international aid. There were subsequent disarmament talks in 1998 and 1999. In 2002, the United States accused North Korea of cheating on previous deals.
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