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CNN: CNN LARRY KING LIVE July 4, 2006

North Korean Launches Several Missiles

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KING: Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr. Barbara, we'll check back in with you as developments warrant. Joining us now to discuss this breaking news further John Pike, he's one of the world's leading experts on defense space and intelligence policy. He's with GlobalSecurity.org.

Also CNN security analyst Richard Falkenrath who, Richard I'll begin with you by noting that when you worked in the Bush administration prior to 9/11 on the national security council, North Korea was in your portfolio. What do you make of this? What is Kim Jong-Il trying to do?

RICHARD FALKENRATH, SECURITY ANALYST: Well it's very hard to figure out what Kim Jong-Il's trying to do ever. It's one of the worst areas of intelligence for us. We have very poor insight into what goes on into his mind. My sense is for the Taepodong, they needed to test it for technical reasons. This missile had been in development for a long time, there hadn't been a complete flight test and they felt the need to test it. The other two I think they didn't need to test. They knew the nodong worked fairly well, that part was certainly a provocation to the U.S.

And as best we can figure what goes on in the mind of this dictator, he's probably trying to send a signal, a warning to the rest of the world. Don't pressure me. Don't threaten us. He's also probably trying to justify his continued repression internally by maintaining the aura of threat that North Korea feels from the rest the world.

KING: Well John, if that is the case, if the idea was don't threaten me to intimidate or potentially bully the world a bit to get back to the bargaining table in a way to his liking and to the test of what North Korea has said is its premier new long-range missile failed, what happens now?

JOHN PIKE, GLOBALSECURITY.ORG: Well, I think we're going to have to get a better idea exactly what happened in this test. I mean let's pose a couple of questions that I'm still waiting for answers. I'm intrigued by the timeline. That it supposedly failed 50 seconds into the launch. Well, that's basically the point at which the first stage would burn out.

The second stage, if it was fueled, would have ignited. Maybe it was a failure. Maybe the first stage was the only one that was fueled. I'm also going to be interested to see what direction they were firing the thing. Were they firing it as though it would have been a satellite launch that would go in one direction? Or were they firing it onto a trajectory that might have gone to the United States? That would be sending it in a very different direction.

But I think you're right. If you're looking at what he's doing, number one, he wants to be unpredictable. Number two, he wants to negotiate in crisis. In that negotiation, he wants to see what he can get, see if he can shake something loose. I think we have to also keep in mind that under their ideology, the whole world ought to be looking to him for inspiration and leadership.

And until recently, people had not been paying attention to him. They'd been paying attention to Ahmadinejad in Iran or Chavez down in Venezuela. But Kim Jong-Il, he hadn't been getting on TV. Well, Kim Jong-Il is on TV and he likes to get on TV. KING: And quickly, what are the technical means available now? You say you have these questions obviously the United States has the world's premier spy satellites. What other technical means are there, that I assume at this very moment, are trying to answer those questions?

PIKE: Right, I think the U.S. government already knows what the launch estimates was. They're going to have a preliminary assessment about whether the first stage failed or whether it simply burned out. I think over the next 12, 36 hours, some of that information's going to come out. Going to be very interesting to see what direction was the big missile fired. On a satellite trajectory, or on one that would have been more threatening.

KING: John Pike, Richard Falkenrath, I'm going to ask you both to stand by, to continue our analysis of this breaking news center. Missile firings by North Korea. Stay with us please. Our viewers here in the United States and around the world, but for now though, we're going to take a quick break.

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