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CNN: INSIGHT March 5, 2006

Iran

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MANN: Joining us now to talk about where things stand is John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org.

Nice to see you again.

Let me ask you. The IAEA is meeting. Iran is on the agenda. Is this a red-letter day or just one more step towards nowhere in particular?

JOHN PIKE, GLOBALSECURITY.ORG: Well, I think it's certainly one more step, probably going to be regarded as a significant step. The big question, of course, is where these steps are leading us.

Are they leading us toward a diplomatic solution? Are they leading us towards American, Western acceptance of Iran having nuclear weapons? Or are they leading us towards military action to prevent them from getting weapons? That's the uncertainty we still face.

MANN: I want to address those important questions, but before we get there, let me ask you another one. Why are all these steps coming so slowly? The pace of this dialogue with Iran moves a step at a time, but a month or two at a time. It's taking an awfully long time, if this is as dangerous a threat as some people believe it is.

PIKE: Well, I think at the end of the day there are a couple of reasons why people are taking it slowly. Iran's nuclear weapons capability is probably not going to materialize until the end of the decade, and so there is still time.

I think that there are people who are eager to keep the diplomatic track going, because as soon as the diplomatic track is evidently a dead- end, then you're faced with some really unpleasant alternatives, one of which may be military action by the United States and people are not eager to bring that on.

MANN: Now, the latest potential opening is an offer that is being reported to have come from the Iranians, who say that they will agree to forego industrial level or industrial scale uranium enrichment if they're allowed to proceed with lower level enrichment, essentially stopping themselves from doing the really frightening things while allowing themselves to potentially learn about how to go about it.

Is that a good offer?

PIKE: Well, the devil is in the details. It's a question of how many of these centrifuges, the things that are enriching the uranium, how many of them they're going to be operating. I think that the numbers that have been discussed are something that would give them the ability to make several atomic bombs every year. I don't think that's going to excite much enthusiasm in the United States. And, of course, the thing that is completely off the table at this point is the reactor that's under construction that would enable them to manufacture plutonium, another thing that you can use to make nuclear weapons.

MANN: Now, just to give people an idea of the scale, and correct me if I'm wrong, they're operating, it is said, about 20. They would need a few thousand to create enough weapons-grade material, and potentially they have plans for 50,000. So they're operating at a miniscule level and they want to move to a small though significant level. How much longer can these talks go on before somebody has to make a real decision on stopping Iran somehow?

PIKE: I would say that the diplomatic track probably has about another year or two to go. I think that the decision point is probably going to come next year. At some point, the Israeli government is going to say this has gone too far, we can't live with it. At some point the American government is going to say we have to do something to stop them.

It's not going to happen this year. Probably going to happen next year. If it doesn't happen before the next presidential election, I think maybe they're just going to have to accept that Iran has nuclear weapons.

MANN: So this has been headed to the Security Council for some time. It has been delayed before getting to the Security Council. It's still not at the Security Council. From what you're saying, it sounds like they may be in no rush to send it and we may be seeing more meetings at the IAEA and more ominous warnings.

PIKE: I think that we're in for at least another year of that. I mean, they sent the North Korean dossier to the Security Council three years ago. They issued a statement and basically haven't done anything since.

MANN: What happens if that is the same result with Iran? If the Security Council does nothing with Iran?

PIKE: My belief at this point is that we're going to wake up one morning, or come home in the evening, to discover that the United States has bombed a number of facilities in Iran to destroy their ability to manufacture nuclear weapons or to deliver them.

MANN: We're coming to the very end of the time we have for this interview, but you've just made a remarkable prediction. You think it's going to be either/or? If the Security Council doesn't do something serious, say, within the next 12 months, no question in your mind that someone is going to end up bombing Iran?

PIKE: I think so.

MANN: OK. Well, we'll talk to you a few times before that. John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org. Thanks so much for being with us.

PIKE: Thank you.

MANN: We're going to take a break and we're going to drop that rather explosive suggestion in the meantime. When we come back, the Bush administration has a different kind of bold new strategy. It strikes a deal with India that could make things a lot easier or even harder.

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