Foster's Daily Democrat August 28, 2005
Was it politics that saved this ship(yard)?
Conspiracy theories are often nutty, sometimes mildly interesting, but rarely cut close to the truth.
Now the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard is safe, let's have a little fun with one theory that may seem realistic once you look at all the angles.
Speaking with two military analysts at Washington, D.C. think tanks this week the subject of politics and its potential role in the Base Realignment and Closure process came up.
John Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org, called the BRAC process a political one.
"It's all political. You have politicians on the BRAC commission who were appointed by politicians and who were they talking to? Politicians," said Pike.
This is a bit ironic considering the commission was created in 1988 with the specific purpose of taking politics out of the process of shuttering military facilities. But then again, Pike pointed out this is Washington — where everything is politics.
Pike believes the historic Kittery yard should have been closed, saying the Navy has enough capacity to do the submarine repair and overhaul work at the other three shipyards.
The decision to keep Kittery open, Pike believes, came down to an Air Force base in South Dakota. What?
Well, Ellsworth Air Force Base has been one a lot of political observers have been keeping their eyes on. Freshman U.S. Sen. John Thune, R-S.D., unseated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in November on the promise he could save Ellsworth.
In fact, 10 years ago Republicans were infuriated when then-President Bill Clinton took Ellsworth off the list in the last round of base closures. Many in the GOP camp said Clinton did this as a favor to Daschle.
Pike maintains the Navy has a shrinking sub fleet and the capacity to repair the ships will only grow in the coming years. BRAC disagreed.
Yet Pike believes the commission had to keep Portsmouth open in order to lend credibility to the lack of capacity argument. By keeping the yard open, as well as the sub base in New London, Conn., Pike said commissioners could get away with taking Ellsworth off the closure list without raising too many red flags.
"I think that they found the urgent and compelling necessity to get Sen. Thune re-elected," Pike said of the BRAC decision on Kittery.
Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institute took the opposite view, saying it was anything but politics that saved Kittery.
"That conspiracy theory totally ignores the fact a lot of these commissioners are not political and some of them are Democrats," O'Hanlon said. "It's not how the process works and I would challenge anyone to offer proof this was a political process."
O'Hanlon said the uncertainty of the future use of the submarine was the biggest deciding factor for the shipyard.
He also pointed out if Republicans were bent on ensuring good news for Thune, the base wouldn't have been on the list in the first place.
"The Pentagon is run by a political appointee, a Republican, and he's the one that put Ellsworth on the list in the first place," O'Hanlon said of Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld.
Friday morning, as Pike predicted, Ellsworth was spared by the BRAC. Does this lend credence to his theory?
Of course, there are nearly 5,000 hard-working employees at the shipyard who could care less about any of this right now and who could blame them for that.
Re-election
Speaking of politics and the shipyard, political observers all agree Gov. John Lynch has just cemented his re-election. The governor, along with the congressional delegation, has been very visible throughout the BRAC process.
"It really does make a difference who's there when things like this happen," said one Statehouse insider.
Does this mean former state senator and one-time GOP gubernatorial Bruce Keough should not challenge Lynch?
"Why should Bruce waste his money?" one GOP member said.
Congressman Jeb Bradley of Wolfeboro will also be very tough to beat having also been very visible in trying to keep the shipyard open.
Nomination watch
Just so you think the name of this column hasn't changed from Statehouse Notebook to Shipyard Notebook, let's take a look at what's coming up in Concord.
The Executive Council meets this Wednesday and many political observers are curious as to what, if any, nominations for key spots in state government Lynch will bring forward.
Folks will be on the lookout for a nominee to the state Retirement System Board of Trustees. Lynch has already maintained he won't renominate board Chairman Ed Theobald after a majority of the trustees agreed there were at least questions of a conflict of interest with the chairman and a potential investment. So far, only one name has surfaced and that's Charlton MacVeagh, a retired banker and one-time chairman of the state Democratic Party. However, that name is not considered a real contender to replace Theobald.
Lynch is keeping this one particularly close to the vest because he hasn't been able to count to three ¿ the magic number to get any nominee approved by the council.
Expect Lynch and the councilors to discuss Theobald's situation in a no-public session Wednesday morning before the regular meeting. If a nominee is presented Wednesday, it means Theobald does not have as much support on the council as he thought.
Bench talk
According to at least one insider, there is a sense Lynch will finally nominate a judge for the Rochester District Court on Wednesday. Just who the nominee will be is still a mystery.
"I haven't even heard from wannabes, which is unusual," said executive Councilor Ruth Griffin.
Councilor Peter Spaulding, whose District 2 includes Rochester, also has "not heard a word" about a possible judicial nomination.
There has been a lot of discussion about Jim Carroll, a Laconia lawyer and former prosecutor for the city, being named to the Rochester bench.
PUC
Moving on to the Public Utilities Commission, some have whispered three names as potential replacements for Commissioner Michael Harrington of Strafford, a former Republican state representative.
All three names floating around are currently involved with the PUC. They are: general counsel Amy Ignatius, Kathryn Bailey, director of the telecommunications division, and Stephen L. Merrill (not to be confused with former Gov. Stephen E. Merrill), utility analyst for consumer advocate's office. Word is the governor has interviewed others as well.
Of course, some councilors don't necessarily feel Harrington should be replaced.
"It's unfortunate," Griffin said. "(Harrington) is the only one that does anything over there. You never can go back, but there are commissioners over there I would never vote for again."
Unrest continues
Anyone who thinks things have settled down in the great soap opera that is Senate leadership is sorely mistaken. Word has it Senate President Tom Eaton and former Majority Leader Bob Clegg met Thursday to try and cool things down. Apparently, that meeting last all of a few minutes and the two reportedly are more angry now than before they met.
"There's no healing that relationship," one senator said.
Sens. Chuck Morse and new Majority Leader Bob Flanders were said to have put the meeting together.
The question is, are the votes there to overthrow Eaton? The dissenters say they have the votes, while Eaton claims he is safe.
If Eaton does hang on, just about every political observer believes the Senate will become a quagmire of bickering, distrust among members and just an all around mess.
There is a strong belief this could boil over within the next couple of weeks, so stay tuned.
© Copyright 2005, Foster's Daily Democrat
