Argus Leader August 25, 2005
Hopes rise for Ellsworth
Delegation: Bases taken off list show independence
By Diana Marrero and Randy Hascall
WASHINGTON - The independent commission weighing the Pentagon's plan to restructure the military voted Wednesday to save two major bases in Maine and Connecticut, giving new hope to South Dakota leaders that Ellsworth Air Force Base also might be spared.
Members of the state's congressional delegation said the early actions of the commissioners show they are not afraid to vote against the wishes of the Defense Department.
And a national defense analyst says the steps taken by the commission Wednesday are a good indication that Ellsworth has a strong chance of being removed from a closure list.
"I think the handwriting is on the wall," said John Pike of Global.Security.org.
"My current reading of the tea leaves," he said, "is that it's a done deal that Ellsworth will remain open."
A vote on Ellsworth could come as early as today, though it's possible it could be delayed until Friday.
Pike said he was astonished by the commission's decisions to keep open the submarine base and shipyard in New England. Those decisions, which Pike says defied logic, were a big victory for Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut Democrat.
In turn, he expects the commission to provide South Dakota Republican Sen. John Thune with a similar victory by keeping Ellsworth open.
"I think we're going to see a package deal," Pike said.
That also could explain why the panel voted to remove the Red River Army Depot in Texas from the closure list, Pike said.
"What would happen if Ellsworth stays open? Dyess wouldn't get all the kinds of people and aircraft it was expecting," Pike said. "If Dyess is not going to pick up B-1s, I think Texas wanted some give-me."
Under the Pentagon's proposal, all of Ellsworth's B-1 Bombers and most personnel would shift to Dyess Air Force Base in Texas.
Pike said politics play a role in the commission's process, despite the panel members' contention that they don't.
"There are a lot of politics," Pike said. "Some on the panel are past politicians who have been meeting with politicians."
The commission's decision to save the submarine base doesn't seem logical in Pike's mind because the Pentagon plans to maintain a fleet of little more than 30 submarines and build only one new sub a year.
Thune, who spent part of the day Wednesday at the hearing, said "I think they have proven they aren't a rubber stamp for the Pentagon."
U.S. Sen. Tim Johnson said the commission's vote could go either way, but he believes South Dakota has "a good shot of prevailing."
"I think the fact that the BRAC Commission did reject the DOD recommendations to close the New London facility is a positive sign," Johnson said of the Connecticut submarine base.
"It indicates this BRAC Commission will be quite independent in making its determinations about which bases to close and which to keep open," Johnson said.
U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth said she remains hopeful.
"I am pleased that the commission apparently has been receptive to arguments against some of the Pentagon's recommendations," Herseth said. "It is obvious that this is an independent commission full of independent commissioners who are looking at the facts and are making their decisions."
Wednesday's votes indicate the panel is intent on weighing the merits of each decision, said Chris Hellman, a military policy analyst for the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
Nevertheless, Hellman noted, the panel has approved most of the Pentagon's recommendations so far.
Another hopeful sign for Ellsworth is the fact that several commissioners in recent days have questioned the Pentagon's cost-savings estimates.
But Pat McElgunn, executive director of the Ellsworth Task Force Base, said from Washington, D.C., that it's "virtually impossible" to determine how the commission will vote based on Wednesday's decisions and members' actions.
"It's just so close to call," he said.
The Rapid City base is the second-largest employer in the state. Its closure could cost the state as many as 1,052 civilian jobs and thousands of military positions.
Ellsworth supporters say closing the base also would pose serious security risks because all of the nation's 67 B1 bombers would be housed in one location in Texas.
The commission finished deliberations on the Army and Navy and will discuss joint service facilities this morning. Commission Chairman Anthony Principi has said Air Force deliberations will begin midday today. Ellsworth is on the lower part of that list if the panel follows the scheduled progression.
Ellsworth supporters had been told their base likely would be considered Friday morning, but McElgunn said he won't be surprised if that's moved up to this afternoon if the proceedings are as efficient as they were Wednesday.
Gannett News Service correspondent John Yaukey contributed to this report.
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