Gannett News Service August 23, 2005
Fort Monmouth backers make final lobby for base
By Ledyard King and Keith Brown
WASHINGTON - Fort Monmouth's former commander met Monday with a key member of the panel reviewing the Pentagon's proposal to close the Army base, one last well-positioned thrust from those who want to save the 88-year-old installation.
It will take at least until Wednesday to gauge the effectiveness of retired Army Gen. William Russ' 11th-hour appeal to retired Air Force Gen. James T. Hill, the latest in a string of behind-the-scenes efforts by base supporters. That's when Hill and the other eight members of the Base Realignment and Closure Commission, or BRAC, begin voting on the proposed closure or realignment of 67 bases including Monmouth.
The Pentagon's recommendations can only be overturned if at least five of the nine members of the commission agree.
"My guess is that we're within one vote," said retired Vice Adm. Paul G. Gaffney III, president of Monmouth University and chairman of a state panel working to protect New Jersey's bases. "I feel it's even money."
The commission also will vote on other aspects of the Pentagon plan affecting New Jersey: the retirement of 16 air refueling tankers at McGuire Air Force Base, the expansion of Picatinny Arsenal as a weapons research center and the conversion of Fort Dix to a regional hub for Army Reserve operations.
The commission must forward its final recommendations to President Bush by Sept. 8.
Base has tough case
Despite Gaffney's guarded optimism, independent analysts say it's doubtful a majority of the panel would overrule the Pentagon and vote to keep Monmouth open.
Few major decisions are going to get reversed, they said, and they're not hearing that New Jersey has made the case to prevent the Pentagon from moving Monmouth's communications and electronics research center to Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. The relocation would mean the loss of nearly 10,000 jobs in central New Jersey -- 5,272 base employees and 4,465 workers who benefit from the base.
"The good news is that this group of commissioners is very capable and more than willing to contradict the Pentagon," said Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute, a Virginia-based think tank. "However, there just isn't a very convincing case for having an electronics command at Fort Monmouth."
Thompson and military analyst John Pike, president of GlobalSecurity.org, said that the environment that helped Monmouth develop and thrive -- New Jersey's status as a global center for the communications and electronics industry -- has changed and that what happens at the fort could be done elsewhere.
Army Secretary Francis Harvey emphasized that point to commissioners at a BRAC hearing Saturday, saying Aberdeen has more space to test equipment and is equally capable of performing the work now done at Monmouth.
At least two of the commissioners -- former Rep. James Bilbray, D-Nev., and ex-Pentagon official Phillip Coyle -- appear solidly in Monmouth's court. The fort's supporters believe two others -- retired Air Force Gen. Lloyd W. Newton and Hill -- could be persuaded to keep the base in New Jersey, even though Hill at a hearing Saturday described the Pentagon's plans for Aberdeen as "pretty solid."
Workers might not move
They would need at least one more vote. Potential swing voters include BRAC Chairman Anthony J. Principi and retired Air Force Gen. Sue Turner.
Principi, whose eldest son was born at Fort Monmouth, has bemoaned the Pentagon's plan to close a number of bases in the Northeast. Post supporters have based much of their argument to keep Fort Monmouth intact around the so-called "brain drain" issue. While the Pentagon has estimated that 75 percent to 80 percent of Fort Monmouth's employees would move to Aberdeen, supporters claim that number is closer to 15 percent.
"It's a risky proposition if people don't move," said Rep. Frank Pallone, D-Long Branch, whose district includes hundreds of base workers. "You don't want to just shake it up in a time of war."
© Copyright 2005, Gannett News Service
