Bloomberg August 11, 2005
Bush, Under Pressure to Cut Troops, Faces Dilemma in Iraq
By Bill Roberts and Jeff St.Onge
Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and his defense and foreign policy advisers met at the president's ranch today facing a dilemma on Iraq, with pressure to start bringing troops home balanced against the risk of destabilizing the new government if the U.S. withdraws too soon.
``No decision has been made yet on increasing troops or decreasing troops,'' Bush said today in Crawford, Texas, after meeting with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. The U.S. can't pull all its forces from Iraq, he said, because doing so would send a message to terrorists that ``the United States is weak.''
With the Iraqis approaching another political milestone next week by drafting a constitution and scheduling elections for later this year, the administration faces difficult choices for the path ahead in Iraq, according to analysts such as Loren Thompson, of the Lexington Institute, a defense policy research group in Arlington, Virginia.
``We can't ramp up because we don't have the forces,'' Thompson said ``That leaves two choices: we stick it out for years to come or come up with some excuse to draw down our forces'' he said. ``It is abundantly clear that the Bush administration wants out.''
Bush said today the U.S. has made it clear to Iraq's interim government that an Aug. 15 deadline for a draft constitution ``can be and should be'' met because it will be ``a critical step on the path toward Iraqi self-reliance.''
Schedule Ahead
The schedule calls for a referendum on the constitution to be held by October followed by a general election in December. With those dates on the calendar and continued efforts to train Iraqi security forces, the Pentagon is forming plans to cut the number of troops in Iraq to 100,000 by mid-2006 after raising the number to 160,000 from the current 138,000 for the elections.
``We are going to have a rolling target'' for troop reductions that lets U.S. forces withdraw as Iraqi units are able to take over security, White House Counselor Dan Bartlett said earlier this week. ``What has been coming out of the Pentagon has been very carefully discussed in terms of a conditions-based strategy.''
Pentagon officials stress that any troop reduction will depend on the Iraqi government's ability to cope with a stubborn insurgency that has intensified in recent weeks. Bush reinforced that condition today.
Michael O'Hanlon, an analyst at the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based policy research organization, said the administration is ``trying hard to send the message that we are hoping to get out in large numbers next year'' while keeping the president's commitment to stay in Iraq until the country is secure and has a democratic government.
Political Stakes
The political stakes are high for Bush. With Republicans trying to maintain control of Congress in U.S. elections 16 months from now, U.S. public support for Bush's handling of the war is at its lowest level. Fifty-nine percent of adults said they disapproved of the way the president is handling Iraq in an Associated Press/Ipsos Public Affairs poll conducted Aug. 1-3.
On top of political concerns, Bush must grapple with military and strategic considerations in Iraq.
Burden on Troops
``In these times of war, a heavy burden falls on the men and women of our armed forces and their families,'' Bush said. ``This morning we discussed the steps we're taking to deal with the increased demand on our forces.''
That includes shifting personnel into spots where they are most needed and giving National Guard and Reserve troops earlier notices about call-ups and ``greater certainty about the length of their tours,'' he said.
The multiple combat tours faced by some active duty personnel are hurting U.S. military preparedness, according to a study published last month by Santa Monica-California-based RAND Corp., which conducts research for governments and businesses.
``The challenge the Army faces is profound,'' Lynn Davis, lead author of the report, said in an interview.
Representative Vic Snyder, of Arkansas, the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Personnel, said the troop rotation schedules aren't giving members of the active duty military enough time for rest and training.
``The longer this goes on the more of a challenge it is,'' Snyder said.
Future Needs
Air Force General Richard Myers, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the U.S. military isn't yet in danger of running out of eligible National Guard and Army Reservists. There are no plans to ask Congress to let the Pentagon extend service limits on those troops.
``We look out several years and we think we will be able to fulfill what we think to be a worst case,'' Myers said in an interview this week.
The Pentagon will face a strain sooner than that, according to Lawrence Korb, a former assistant secretary of defense for readiness in the Reagan administration.
``If you want to keep the same number of ground troops there a year from now, you are going to have to do things that will destroy the all-volunteer Army,'' Korb said. ``The military guys are really worried about the future of the Army.''
Any draw down of U.S. forces would rely on Iraqi military and political progress. U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad briefed the president on progress toward a constitution and he told Bush the Iraqis drafting the document understands the issues and the options, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley told reporters.
Compromises
``There are some efforts to bring some compromise,'' Hadley said. Khalilzad's ``view is that everybody understands the urgency of coming out with a draft by Aug. 15 so we can keep the schedule of getting it out in the country.''
The U.S. presence also affects the political situation in Iraq, said Anthony Cordesman, a Middle East security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. ``Unless the U.S. can be seen moving down and getting out, the legitimacy of the Iraqi government is uncertain, and pressure from the Shiite side is going to steadily increase for U.S. withdrawals,'' he said.
Pulling out too many troops too fast may embolden the insurgents to step up their attacks on the new Iraqi government or allow the friction among Shiites, Sunnis and the Kurds to spark a civil war.
``We are going to need somewhere between 50,000 and 60,000 troops'' in Iraq ``permanently,'' said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, an Alexandria, Virginia-based defense research group. ``That would guarantee of the integrity of this little government we have set up.
The past two weeks have been one of the deadliest periods for the U.S. military in Iraq, with at least 44 soldiers and Marines killed by insurgents. At least 1,839 U.S. military personnel have died in Iraq since the March 2003 invasion.
© Copyright 2005, Bloomberg L.P.
