The Times Herald August 1, 2005
Analysts: Detroit attack not likely
By Bill Shea
Defense experts said a Sept. 11-style attack by hijacked airliners on a city such as Detroit is unlikely, making the potential retirement of nearby military aircraft less cause for alarm.
Politicians, however, express worry.
The Pentagon is proposing to retire the lone air-to-air combat aircraft unit in Michigan, F-16 fighters at Selfridge Air National Guard Base in Harrison Township, under a cost-cutting and consolidation plan.
Marcus Corbin, a defense analyst with the Center for Defense Information in Washington, D.C., said terrorists aren't likely to repeat what they did on 9-11.
"The scenario of having to shoot down an aircraft is relatively unlikely and therefore should play a fairly small role (in base-closure considerations) - the cockpit door armoring is supposed to rule out the possibility, not to mention that passengers will no longer tolerate hijackings," he said.
"Freight aircraft may be a possibility, but the whole tactical approach of al-Qaida and its ilk are to do something new, not what they did last time. We're closing the barn door after the horse has bolted, while there are many other barn doors still wide open."
U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz, R-Battle Creek, wants the Air National Guard capable of handling such a threat regardless.
A Battle Creek base is to be closed under the Pentagon's plan, which still has to have approval from the president and Congress.
A-10 Thunderbolts from Battle Creek would be moved to Selfridge, replacing F-16 Falcons there.
"If the F-16s at Selfridge are taken down, the air superiority capable of the Michigan Guard is hurt," Schwarz said.
"The Michigan Air National Guard as we know it is gone if this plan goes through."
Gov. Jennifer Granholm and U.S. Sens. Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow, all Democrats, have joined Schwarz in opposing the Pentagon's plans.
They cite similar homeland-security worries and oppose the loss of defense jobs.
If the F-16s are retired, Detroit would be in a situation faced by other major cities, said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org.
"Most major cities are without a nearby fighter base, so the situation with Detroit is not unusual," Pike said.
Detroit isn't a high-profile target for what Pike termed "evil-doers."
"I don't have the sense ... that Detroit is very high on the list of either (the military or terrorists) when it comes to crashing airplanes or shooting them down."
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