South China Morning Post March 17, 2005
Insurgency has potential to destabilise neighbours
By Peter Kammerer
The United States promised peace and democracy across the Middle East when it led the invasion of Iraq, but according to analysts, two years on there is little evidence of either.
Instead, they warn that the insurgency stymying Iraq's economic and political development could spread across the region, strengthening the hand of terrorists who continue to undermine a country whose immediate future will remain marked by insecurity.
Singapore-based terrorism expert Rohan Gunaratna had the bleakest outlook, blaming US President George W. Bush for stoking the flames of anti-western dissent by ordering the military overthrow of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.
"The invasion increased the threat of terrorism very significantly," he said. "It also very likely has the potential to destabilise the Middle East."
Dr Gunaratna, a senior analyst at Singapore's Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, said terrorist and extremist groups worldwide had exploited the suffering, anger and resentment of Muslims and turned Iraq into the focus of a new Islamic jihad, or holy war. The centre of gravity of global terrorism had shifted there from Afghanistan and unknown numbers of zealots were flocking to the cause.
Iraq-born Mustafa Alani, who observes the region from the Gulf Research Centre in the United Arab Emirates, is also pessimistic. He fled Hussein's regime more than two decades ago and won't return to visit relatives in Baghdad because of the lack of security.
"The situation in Iraq is getting worse," Dr Alani said. "The attacks on police and security forces are nonstop and this is not a good sign. Security is a key - there can be no political stability or economic progress without security."
Because of the constant threats and the poor state of infrastructure, such as water and electricity supplies, Iraqis were no better off now than under Hussein, he believed.
The former assistant chief of Britain's air and defence staffs, Sir Timothy Garden, agreed.
Sir Timothy said the opportunity to quickly build a new, democratic nation after the reasonably well-planned and executed initial invasion had been "thrown away" by subsequent American policies.
Nor were the triumphs of elections on January 30 and parliament sitting for the first time this week guarantees of a smooth political transition, he said.
Wrangling among the dominant Shi'ite Muslims with Kurds seeking autonomy and Sunni Muslims pushing for a return of the power they held under Hussein made for difficult negotiations over a new constitution. Training of Iraqi police and security forces to replace allied troops was well behind schedule.
"We need to set milestones which would force us to accelerate the training process for Iraqis and rebuild the country."
Analysts said opposition to American efforts in Iraq and the Middle East remained strong, especially in Western Europe and in Muslim and Arab countries.
"In the court of world opinion, the US has probably never experienced such a precipitous decline as in the past two years," said John Pike, the director of globalsecurity.org in the US state of Virginia.
But Michael Rubin, of the conservative Washington think-tank the American Enterprise Institute, said democracy was taking shape in Iraq and although security was problematic, the fact that Iraqis had not fled their country proved they had hope for the future.
"Democracy is the way forward, as long as it's not one man, one vote, one-time accountability and the chance of a change of power. Outside observers shouldn't let their own domestic agendas impact on the freedom of others."
© Copyright 2005, South China Morning Post Ltd.
