Daily News (New York) December 20, 2004
Osama's Coiled For Strike, Says Terror Expert
By James Gordon Meek
WASHINGTON - Recent tapes from Al Qaeda's top kingpins could mean that a spectacular strike against the U.S. is imminent, a former CIA counterterrorism official warns.
Michael Scheuer, the former chief of the CIA's Osama Bin Laden unit and author of "Imperial Hubris," a book arguing that the West is losing the war on terrorism, said he is alarmed by recent statements by Bin Laden and his deputy, Dr. Ayman Al-Zawahiri.
"I think what [Bin Laden] has done is clearly set the stage for a large attack," Scheuer told Time magazine.
But other terror experts disputed that tapes always precede attacks. "There's simply not enough consistent data at this point to be able to draw that conclusion," defense analyst John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org told the Daily News yesterday.
Pike said there is much evidence that Al Qaeda has been disrupted to the point where it may be incapable of mounting a spectacular attack in the U.S.
"They seem to have substituted words for action," Pike said. "But nobody wants to prematurely declare victory, because the evildoers retain the capacity to prove you wrong."
Scheuer said the Muslim Prophet Muhammed taught that enemies should be warned in advance of attack and given the chance to convert to Islam.
Bin Laden's tapes are like warnings and show he has "done everything that's required" to ensure "the criticisms he got after 9/11 won't be valid this time around," Scheuer said.
In another development, the Saudi branch of Al Qaeda, in a Web statement, called yesterday for attacks against oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.
The statement called on "all mujahedeen . . . in the Arabian Peninsula" to target "the oil resources that do not serve the nation of Islam."
Such attacks likely would drive up oil prices and damage the U.S. economy.
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