Reuters November 19, 2004
U.S. wins Falluja but struggles elsewhere
By Lin Noueihed
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The U.S.-led assault on Falluja was meant to pacify Iraq's Sunni Muslim heartland ahead of January elections threatened by bloody rebellion.
But with fighting erupting in other Sunni cities across Iraq and mounting threats of a poll boycott, analysts say U.S. forces are far from winning the wider fight for the hearts and minds of disaffected Iraqis.
Curfews have been imposed on at least five other cities, including the capital Baghdad, since U.S. and Iraqi forces attacked Falluja 11 days ago.
American troops have battled insurgents in Iraq's third largest city, Mosul, after they overran police stations and seized control of entire neighbourhoods.
"They have been saying that Falluja is the source of and therefore the solution to their problems. The violence in Mosul has shown that to be a crassly stupid thing to say," said Toby Dodge, an Iraq analyst at Queen Mary University of London.
"Insurgency is a national phenomenon fuelled by alienation. I don't think this war is winnable because they have alienated the base of support across Iraqi society."
U.S. and Iraqi officials acknowledge that foreign Islamists and hardcore Baathists leading the insurgency from Falluja slipped out of the city before the offensive.
Some say they headed to other Sunni cities where they are behind attacks on Iraqi police and National Guards the government eventually wants to take control of Iraq's security.
A senior Marine intelligence report says al Qaeda ally Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the U.S. military's top enemy in Iraq, has probably rebased from Falluja to Mosul, the New York Times reported.
It warned rebels would make a comeback in Falluja if the 12,000 or so troops rallied from across Iraq for the assault left too soon.
A U.S. unit that was deployed from Mosul to Falluja for the assault has already been rushed back and National Guard reinforcements have been dispatched to help calm the violence.
With morale and loyalty among embattled Iraqi security forces low and the 138,000 U.S. forces in Iraq already stretched, analysts say stabilising the country by the January elections is a monumental task.
"American forces can continue to swat down these outbreaks as they have to but the real challenge is to get Iraqi security forces ready and to help do the job," said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington-based defence research tank.
ELECTION BOYCOTT?
The government says it is determined to hold Iraq's first free elections for decades on time, but a threatened boycott among Sunni Arabs, some 20 percent of Iraq's 26 million people, could seriously undermine the credibility of any poll.
Marginalised since the U.S.-led war overthrew fellow Sunni Saddam Hussein, some Sunnis already see the Falluja attack as little more than a war against them and have little faith in Prime Minister Iyad Allawi and President Ghazi al-Yawar.
Some who once looked forward to casting their ballot say Falluja proved they were being squeezed between a long-oppressed Shi'ite majority in the south and semi-autonomous Kurds in the north -- both of which have much to gain from elections.
"I am 100 percent against the attack on Falluja. They are attacking people in their homes," said Hasan Attiyeh, a young graduate who runs a clothing shop in the eastern city of Baquba.
"I will not vote. Can I vote for Iyad Allawi? Ghazi al-Yawar? What have they done for us?"
Iraq's government has vowed to hit the rebels, who it says are led by foreign fighters, wherever they are in the country.
But persistent violence in Samarra, which Iraqi officials said was pacified in an October offensive, has shown a large part of the insurgency is fuelled by homegrown opposition to the U.S. military presence in Iraq.
Some analysts say Iraq's U.S.-backed government must offer Sunnis incentives to embrace the political process rather than using military force which provokes resentment.
Others say the poll will now probably be postponed.
"The victory in Falluja has highlighted the bankruptcy of the military strategy," Dodge said.
"The fight against insurgency is 90 percent political and no one in the Pentagon is listening."
© Copyright 2004, Reuters
