Reuters November 04, 2004
Bush's second-term agenda may widen partisan divide
George W Bush, declaring victory in the 2004 election, sketched out a second-term agenda even supporters conceded would be tough to achieve, from bringing stability to Iraq to overhauling social security and the tax code. Minutes after John Kerry, the Democrat, conceded the bitter presidential race, Bush vowed to reach across partisan lines. "A new term is a new opportunity to reach out to the whole nation. I will need your support, and I will work to earn it," the Republican president said.
However, his top domestic priorities, whether tax code changes or reviving legislation to promote energy production, could spark as much partisan rancour as the sweeping tax cuts he pushed through in his first term, congressional aides said. Democrats say the White House has already told homeland security, education and other federal agencies to brace for a slowdown in spending growth and, possibly, outright budget cuts starting next year.
The belt-tightening is part of Bush's plan to cut the record budget deficit in half within five years - a goal even fiscal conservatives doubt Bush can achieve. Dick Cheney, the vice president, said the election victory gave Bush "a mandate" and new leverage after Republicans expanded their majority in Congress. Grover Norquist, a White House ally and head of Americans for Tax Reform, predicted that Bush would push through annual tax cuts, achieving his goal of reform incrementally. Norquist said Bush now had the votes in Congress to abolish inheritance taxes.
Social security
Bush's most ambitious domestic proposal - adding personal retirement accounts to social security - may be the most divisive and costly of all. The estimated cost of diverting some payroll taxes to these private accounts ranges from $1 trillion to $2 trillion over 10 years, and Bush has yet to settle on a plan to finance it. Some Republicans close to the White House said revamping social security would, at least initially, take precedence over another of Bush's top economic goals - broad tax reform.
They said Bush's goal is to secure passage of the social security overhaul within the first two years of his second term. But Democratic congressional aides are already talking about the prospects of a vote-blocking filibuster against any plan to "privatise" the retirement system. Stephen Moore, head of the Club for Growth, a group that helped Bush's re-election, said the president views Social Security reform as a "legacy issue."
However, he acknowledged: "Social Security reform and tax reform are two big boulders in the budget - it's hard to do both at once."
Celebrations cut short
Administration officials and top Republicans say Bush's foreign policy agenda also faces major challenges, the most immediate of which is keeping elections in Iraq on track and quelling the violence there. "There was not a lot of high fiving," one senior administration official said after Bush's election victory. "The sense was, okay, we've won, but the prize is the responsibility, the toil."
So far, the United Nations has balked at sending enough staff into Iraq to help carry out the elections, citing poor security. And some administration officials have expressed doubts about the election timetable, though Bush insists it will take place on schedule in January. "Even if we succeed in temporarily suppressing the insurgency, all we're going to be doing is pruning it back. It's going to come back in full force," predicted John Pike, a defence analyst with GlobalSecurity.org. "The elections aren't going to bring stability."
Pike said Bush could be forced to keep at least 140 000 to 150 000 troops in Iraq "for at least another two years," putting further strain on an already stretched military. Bush is expected to ask Congress early next year for $65 billion to $85 billion in additional emergency funding for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, congressional aides said.
The bigger-than-expected request will bring total US funding for military operations and reconstruction efforts in both countries to nearly $300 billion.
© Copyright 2004, Reuters
