The Hotline September 30, 2004
IRAQ: DROPPING SCIENCE (BUT NOT LIKE GALILEO DROPPED THE; ORANGE)
Los Angeles Times' Mazzetti reports, the Pentagon's Defense Science Board says in a report "obtained" by the Times, the U.S. military "lacks sufficient personnel to meet the nation's current war and peacekeeping demands throughout the world in coming years, despite steps being taken by the Army to stretch its ranks and increase the number of soldiers available for combat." It offers "several options for easing the burdens" on the military, including "adding substantial numbers of troops and scaling back the number of peacekeeping missions. The board did not specify troop numbers."
The report "surfaced last week" when Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) cited it in a cong. hearing, when he questioned Defense Sec. Don Rumsfeld about it. Rumsfeld "called it an 'excellent piece of work,'" but said: "I don't know if they were briefed on ... all the things we're doing in the department. I doubt it." Pentagon spokesperson Lt. Col. Gary Keck said on 9/29 that "while Rumsfeld appreciated that the board undertook the study, he did not accept its conclusion": "Obviously, we don't feel that their recommendation that we need to have a permanent increase in end strength is justified. There are many other people other than the Defense Science Board." But top Pentagon officials "concede that the U.S. military is stretched thing" (9/30).
ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US
Christian Science Monitor's Francis asks, "If a new Iraq government should agree to let American forces stay on, how many bases will the U.S. request? ... The Pentagon isn't saying." The U.S. Army maintains 1 in Honduras, 6 in the Netherlands. 12 is the "number of so-called 'enduring bases' located" by GlobalSecurity.org dir. John Pike. They include Camp Victory at Baghdad Airport and Camp Renegade in Kirkuk. The Chicago Tribune reported in Mar. that U.S. engineers are "constructing 14 'enduring bases'" -- "Pentagon-speak for long-term encampments" that are "not necessarily long-term, but not just a tent on a wood platform either" -- but Pike "hasn't located two of them."
Last week Rumsfeld "testified about a global 'rearrangement' of U.S. forces. Says Pike: "Who needs Germany when we have Iraq?" But there are "risks," and an Iraqi govt. would have to "accept a U.S. military presence despite popular disapproval." Pike adds: "An indefinite American presence in Iraq is the ultimate guarantor of some quasi-pluralistic government."
HOW CAN YOU SAY NO TO THE LECTURE CIRCUIT?
Washington Post's Milbank and Allen report, the Bush admin. is "battling negative perceptions of the Iraq war" by sending Iraqi-Americans to "deliver what the Pentagon calls 'good news' about Iraq to U.S. military bases, and has curtailed distribution of reports" filed by contractor Kroll Security "showing increasing violence" in Iraq." Rumsfeld has sent U.S. military commanders a 5-page memo titled "Guidance to Commanders" about the Iraqi-American speakers, who will "provide 'a first-hand account' of events in Iraq." The report says they "'feel strongly that the benefits of the coalition efforts have not been fully reported.'" (9/30).
Christian Science Monitor's Grier and Bowers report, "unclassified" weekly status reports from Iraq, "widely disseminated within" the govt. but "generally not ... made public" show Iraq has less than 30% of the "trained police it needs," and existing Iraqi police radios and body armor are "in short supply." They also indicate that "insurgent attacks are widely spread throughout the country." But while they "don't sugarcoat the situation ... neither do they depict a country overwhelmed by chaos." Telephone systems are better than before the war, and "trend lines for some important security force are shown going up" (9/30).
OUR BOATS ARE SWIFTER THAN YOURS
Boston Globe's Cambanis, reporting with the dateline "On the Euphrates River," describes the Riverine Assault Craft, "yet another facet to the counterinsurgency effort in Iraq." The Marines believe insurgents have "used the river effectively to their advantage -- staging ambushes from across the water or using it as an escape route after planting roadside bombs." The 3 "just debuted" "flat-bottomed boats" on the detail have a top speed of about 45 miles-per-hour and can move "in just 9 inches of water," and will start patrolling "from the vicinity of Karballa to just south of Fallujah, about 60 miles away" (9/30).
IRAN WANTS EARLY ELECTIONS ... UM, MAYBE WE SHOULD RETHINK OUR POSITION?
USA Today's Slavin reports, Iran "supports plans for elections in Iraq" this Jan. "even if the violence there means they can't take place throughout the country." Iranian foreign minister Kamal Kharrazi, visiting the U.N., "told reporters at a breakfast" that "elections 'have to be held on time'": "Maybe some cities [can] be temporarily excluded ... until later when it is calm. But most of the cities of Iraq are prepared."
Slavin writes, "Iran's opinion is important. As Iraq's most influential neighbor, it could disrupt elections if it wished. ... A victory by Shiite political parties would suit Iran," which "provided haven for Iraqi Shiite groups" when Saddam was in power (9/30).
KEEPING TRACK, GRIMLY
"At least" 3 bombs exploded near a U.S. convoy in western Baghdad on 9/29, "killing at least 37 people and wounding more than 50." Hours before that, a "suicide car bombing killed a U.S. soldier and two Iraqis" on the outskirts of Baghdad. Interior Ministry Adnan Abdul-Rahaman said "two car bombs and a roadside bomb exploded ins sift succession as the convoy was passing" during the early afternoon. Residents said the "attack happened during a ceremony marking the opening of a new sewage system" (AP/USA Today, 9/30).
NYT + TB 4EVER? OMG!! ;) TTFN
New York Times opines, "Watching Tony Blair is always instructive for Americans, and sometimes the source of envy. He faces much the same political conundrum" as Bush, but he is "not pretending things in Iraq are humming along on schedule," saying to a Labour conf. this week: "I entirely understand why many disagree." The Times continues, "at least the words 'apologize' and 'wrong' were put on the record, and his critics were not called unpatriotic" (9/30).
OOOH! OOOH! PICK ME! I HAVE AN ANSWER!
Ex-Pres. Carter: "I think a lot of the violence in Iraq now is directly attributable to the fact that U.S. forces are there and there's no clear concept, at any early stage, of when they will be withdrawn. I do not personally believe they will be ready for the election in January but I think we should go through with the election and then withdraw American troops as rapidly as possible. As soon as there's some tangible semblance of a democratic government in Iraq, get us out of there" ("Today," NBC, 9/30).
Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), asked if Bush is "leveling" with the public about Iraq: "I think the president has been very forthright all along in saying, No. 1, this was going to be a long war on terrorism. It's proving to be that. He's been very forthright in saying all along that the violence in Iraq is probably going to escalate. That's exactly what we're seeing. I'm concern about Iraq. The president is concerned about it. Everybody that's involved in this issue is concerned for the right reasons. And if we capitulate, if we change course, then the terrorists win" ("IP," CNN, 9/29).
Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), asked if Bush is "leveling" with the public about Iraq: "There are some who have a seemingly steely determination to keep hopelessness alive. The president, on the other hand, wants to lead with realistic assessments, but also hope that we can persevere. ... The challenge, of course, is that the bad guys over there are testing our resolve. And that's where the president knows that being pessimistic won't win, but holding out hope and optimism will help" ("Wolf Blitzer Reports," CNN, 9/29).
KE'04 adviser/ex-U.N. Amb. Richard Holbrooke: "The truth is that Iraq no longer has a success strategy or an exit strategy. The president is dismissing his own national intelligence estimates and he's calling for things which he is not going to be able to accomplish. And I'm afraid we're getting caught into a quagmire in the desert of enormous proportions here" ("Wolf Blitzer Reports," CNN, 9/29).
KE'04 spokesperson Chad Clanton, on criticism of Kerry's proposed Iraq withdrawal timetable: "The bottom line is ask military moms, ask military fathers if they think it's a good idea to have a target date for when we're going to bring our U.S. soldiers home. John Kerry has a plan. George Bush does not. And I think another thing that you would hear from the military mothers and fathers if you asked them is that George Bush hasn't been telling the truth about the real situation in Iraq" ("PZ Now," CNN, 9/29).
RNC adviser Terry Holt: "Iraq is a battlefield in the global war on terror. It's going to take a long time to win, and it's going to take strong and determined leadership. Not vacillation, not double-talk, not saying that 'I voted for the war before I voted against it,' not taking 11 or 12 positions whether or not he supports the war in Iraq" ("PZ Now," CNN, 9/29).
STOP THIS WAR, I WANT TO GET OFF
Wall Street Journal's Fassihi begins the first of two e-mails to friends later posted to Poynter.org's message board: "Being a foreign correspondent in Baghdad these days is like being under virtual house arrest. Forget about the reasons that lured me to this job: a chance to see the world, explore the exotic, meet new people in far away lands, discover their ways and tell stories that could make a difference."
More: "Little by little, day-by-day, being based in Iraq has defied all those reasons. I am house bound. I leave when I have a very good reason to and a scheduled interview. I avoid going to people's homes and never walk in the streets. I can't go grocery shopping any more, can't eat in restaurants, can't strike a conversation with strangers, can't look for stories, can't drive in any thing but a full armored car, can't go to scenes of breaking news stories, can't be stuck in traffic, can't speak English outside, can't take a road trip, can't say I'm an American, can't linger at checkpoints, can't be curious about what people are saying, doing, feeling. And can't and can't."
He concludes the second: "I asked a 28-year-old engineer if he and his family would participate in the Iraqi elections since it was the first time Iraqis could to some degree elect a leadership. His response summed it all: "Go and vote and risk being blown into pieces or followed by the insurgents and murdered for cooperating with the Americans? For what? To practice democracy? Are you joking?" Both are available in their entirety here (9/29).
© Copyright 2004, The National Journal Group, Inc.
