Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (Pennsylvania) September 13, 2004
10-Year Assault Weapons Ban Ends
Congress Ducks Vote, Fearing NRA
By Karen MacPherson
President Bush supports the renewal of the 10-year-old ban on the sale of certain assault weapons. So does Sen. John F. Kerry, Bush's Democratic presidential opponent.
Most police organizations support it, too, as do major medical groups and religious organizations. Most polls consistently show a majority of Americans, including those who own guns, also want Congress to renew the ban on the sale of 19 kinds of military-style semiautomatic assault rifles.
So why is the assault weapons ban set to expire at midnight today?
Experts cite a mix of factors. For one thing, gun control has barely surfaced so far in this year's presidential contest, which has focused instead on national security, the Iraq war and the economy. Not until Friday did Kerry blast Bush for not pushing Congress to extend the assault-weapons ban, leaving no time for Congress to act.
The politically powerful National Rifle Association has made killing the ban its No. 1 legislative priority, and the Republican leaders of Congress have thwarted efforts to hold a vote on extending it.
Bush, generally a gun-rights supporter, has promised to sign a measure renewing the ban. But he hasn't done anything to lobby for it, saying that it's up to Congress to decide.
"Even though the law has been, and is, supported by most Americans, its demise owes much to the fact that this is the most gun-control-hostile Congress and president we've ever had," said Robert Spitzer, a political science professor at the State University of New York/Cortland and author of "The Politics of Gun Control."
"The NRA is powerful -- no question about it. But the biggest factor is that the House, the Senate and the White House are all controlled by leaders sympathetic to the NRA," Spitzer said.
Most Democrats -- mindful of the NRA's ability to pour money into congressional races to defeat proponents of gun control -- haven't pushed the issue, either. Two years after the assault-weapons ban passed in 1994, the NRA helped to oust 20 incumbent Democrats, turning control of the House over to the Republicans.
More recently, political experts say, Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore's support for gun control in the 2000 election cost him support in several key states, including West Virginia and his home state of Tennessee.
While Kerry generally supports gun rights and often flaunts the fact that he likes to hunt, he has not wanted to alienate gun owners this year. But at a St. Louis campaign event on Friday, Kerry did go after Bush for failing to seek a congressional vote on renewing the assault-weapons ban.
"In the al-Qaida manual on terror, they were telling people to go out and buy assault weapons, to come to America and buy assault weapons," Kerry said. "Every law enforcement officer in America doesn't want us selling assault weapons in the streets of America, but George Bush, he says, 'Well, I'm for that.' "
The Bush campaign responded by pointing to Kerry's support for gun control measures during his 20 years in the Senate.
"His implication that the president is helping terrorists is just another example of a candidate who is behind in the polls and lashing out with flailing personal attacks," said Bush campaign spokesman Steve Schmidt.
Meanwhile, predictions about what will happen once the ban expires tonight vary according to opinions as to how effective it has been.
Despite its fervent opposition, the NRA said the ban was based on "cosmetic accessories" for otherwise legal weapons and has had little effect. "The sun will rise and set on Tuesday just like Monday despite ominous predictions that the streets will be flooded with these weapons," said Chris Cox, the NRA's chief lobbyist.
Splitting with other gun control groups, the Violence Policy Center agrees with that assessment. Kristen Rand, the center's legislative director, notes that "pre-ban" weapons continued to be legally sold over the past 10 years. "In order to evade the law, manufacturers only had to make simple changes," said Tom Diaz, the center's senior policy analyst.
As a result, "assault weapons have continued to pose a very serious threat to law enforcement," Rand said. "Between 1998 and 2001, one of five law enforcement officers killed was killed with an assault weapon."
Disillusioned with the effectiveness of the ban, the Violence Policy Center has been pushing instead for a tougher prohibition on semiautomatic assault weapons, modeled on California law.
While acknowledging loopholes in the ban, other gun-control groups highlight studies showing that it has been at least moderately effective. Allowing the law to expire will inevitably lead to the use of previously banned assault weapons to kill law enforcement officers and others, they said.
"Everyone who supports the assault-weapons ban argues that the law needs to be strengthened. There's no question about that," said Blaine Rummel, a spokesman for the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence. "But the way to do that is not to let the current ban expire. The way to do that is to renew the ban and strengthen it."
Neither gun-rights supporters nor gun-control advocates believe the issue will fade away after the assault-weapons ban expires tonight.
"We don't expect [gun-control advocates ] to give up that easily," said the NRA's Cox. "We expect gun control groups and their allies to continue pushing for a federal gun control ban."
Jim Kessler, policy director of the Americans for Gun Safety, acknowledged that the expiration of the ban "is a blow" for gun-control advocates.
"This was landmark legislation, important legislation, and now it's going to disappear," Kessler said. "Unfortunately, what will probably lead to the passage of a new assault-weapons ban is one or more high-profile crimes committed with these newly allowed weapons."
With the expiration of the ban, "our streets, our homes, our citizens and our police officers will face great danger," argued Washington, D.C., police Chief Charles Ramsey.
Gun-control advocates may shift their efforts to the states. Seven states -- California, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland and Hawaii -- already have some type of prohibition on assault weapons, according to gun-control groups.
Legislation to ban assault weapons has been introduced this year in seven other states, including Pennsylvania and Ohio, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Four states that already have prohibitions, including California, are considering further legislation. In Pennsylvania, state Rep. Dan Frankel, D-Squirrel Hill, has introduced legislation that would institute a state assault-weapons ban. Frankel, who chairs the Pennsylvania Gun Safety Caucus in the General Assembly, said his measure would be even tougher than the 1994 federal law. But he said the gun lobby in Pennsylvania is likely to prevent his bill from coming to a vote.
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INFORMATIONAL GRAPHIC: Dan DeLorenzo/AP; Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms; GlobalSecurity; U.S. Department of State: (Gun expires,legalizes sale of military-style features)
© Copyright 2004, P.G. Publishing Co.
