The Gazette August 17, 2004
Troop shift may give Carson a boost
By Tom Roeder
President Bush's plan to move two Army divisions from Germany to the United States likely will pay local dividends, several sources said Monday.
In a speech in Cincinnati announcing an overhaul of overseas military commitments, Bush said 70,000 troops in Europe and Asia likely will pack up and move within a decade, including more than 30,000 who will leave Germany.
The changes have been discussed for months, but the president's announcement at a Veterans of Foreign Wars convention made that talk official and increased chances that Fort Carson could add several thousand soldiers.
"Over the coming decade, we will deploy a more agile and more flexible force, which means that more of our troops will be stationed and deployed from here at home," Bush said.
Fort Carson probably will grow by thousands of soldiers, said Republican U.S. Rep. Joel Hefley, of Colorado Springs.
Pentagon officials recently have scrutinized the post to determine whether it can house more soldiers than the 14,000 stationed there, said Jeff Crank, vice president for government affairs with the Greater Colorado Springs Chamber of Commerce. Crank said he's heard that more soldiers probably are coming.
"Carson is pretty uniquely qualified to accept more soldiers," he said.
Several Army sources speaking on condition of anonymity have confirmed that Fort Carson was inspected this summer as a place to house more soldiers. An announcement could come this fall.
Post spokesman Lt. Col. Dave Johnson, however, said he hasn't heard anything that supports or discredits the rumors that Carson will grow.
Fort Carson has room to grow because it housed more than 17,000 soldiers a decade ago. Until it was downsized in 1995, the post housed the 4th Infantry Division, most of which moved to Texas, resulting in a loss of 3,000 soldiers.
The case for adding soldiers to Fort Carson is even stronger, Hefley and Crank said, because the post has undergone more than $250 million in construction during the past decade.
Sen. Wayne Allard, R-Colo., said it is a reasonable assumption that Bush's troop-moving plan will mean more soldiers in Colorado Springs.
Another factor could be electionyear politics.
John Pike, executive director of the think tank GlobalSecurity.org, said the Bush re-election campaign could benefit if the Pentagon announces troop additions to such states as Colorado, where the president wants to bolster his November vote totals.
Although speculation points to more soldiers at Fort Carson, nobody Monday could do more than guess at the specifics of any move.
Army sources at Fort Carson and Fort Hood, Texas, have speculated that Fort Carson could wind up with the German-based 1st Armored Division, but only if units stationed at Fort Carson are cleared out to make room for the newcomers.
That would mean the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment and the 3rd Brigade Combat Team would go elsewhere, and Fort Carson would trade about 9,700 soldiers for almost 14,000.
It's logical that the brigade, the last remnant of the 4th Infantry Division left at Fort Carson since the 1995 move, would join the rest of the division at Fort Hood under that scenario.
Where the cavalry regiment could land is less clear.
Rumored candidates for the unit include Fort Bliss, Texas, where it was housed until 1995, bases in Germany - as a consolation prize for the loss of larger Army units - and Fort Riley, Kan.
The big-switch scenario, though, is one of dozens of rumors about Fort Carson's future.
Other theories include the post keeping what it has and adding another brigade of 4,000 soldiers. Those soldiers could come from almost anywhere on the globe as the Bush administration shuffles 70,000 troops at overseas bases.
Whatever happens, it probably won't be fast. The Pentagon said Monday the two divisions coming back from Germany won't move until at least 2006. Before that, U.S. leaders will have to sort out some diplomatic issues.
The Germans face losing thousands of jobs when the soldiers move, and probably will object.
There also will be intense political pressure nationwide as communities near existing bases lobby for more troops, Pike said.
Another factor is an ongoing reorganization of Army fighting units.
Divisions that have three brigades of about 4,000 soldiers will wind up with four or more 3,000-soldier "units of action."
It's unclear what that new math will do to troop dispositions. In one scenario, Fort Carson could lose hundreds of soldiers if the 3rd Brigade Combat Team is downsized and the expected European dividend never happens.
Another potential roadblock is a Pentagon plan to shutter one-fifth of military bases worldwide. A base-closure committee next year is expected to compile a list of which bases will go.
Although the five military bases around Colorado Springs are considered safe by insiders, an outside chance remains that Fort Carson could be closed and its troops dispersed. Or Fort Carson could gain from the closure of bases elsewhere, possibly growing larger than Hefley's optimistic predictions.
TROOPS ABROAD
- About 230,000 American forces are overseas in addition to about 155,000 in Iraq and Afghanistan.
- The largest contingents are in Germany (73,000), Japan (40,000) and South Korea (37,000). Military officials said troop strength in South Korea will be cut by one-third.
KERRY'S TURN
Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry will address the Veterans of Foreign Wars convention Wednesday.
© Copyright 2004, The Gazette, a division of Freedom Colorado Information
