United Press International August 4, 2004
Report: Iraqi PM making progress
By GADI DECHTER
The interim Iraqi prime minister -- just over a month in power -- has already exceeded international expectations and set the country on a path to stability, even if its not democracy, according to a Middle East Media Research Institute report issued Wednesday in Washington.
"My feeling, and I am a native of that country, is that if anyone is capable of bringing the situation under control, (Iyad) Allawi is," Nimrod Raphaeli, senior analyst at MEMRI, told United Press International.
MEMRI is a pro-Israeli organization that monitors and analyzes Middle East media reports.
According to the report Raphaeli wrote, titled, "Iraqi Interim Government: An Interim Progress Assessment," Allawi has made significant progress in three areas: establishing diplomatic legitimacy in the region, commanding the respect of the Iraqi people and improving the security situation on the ground.
"I think the man is dynamic," Raphaeli said when interviewed. "He has demonstrated strong leadership under very difficult circumstances, and he has not lost his cool."
Foremost among Allawi's achievements, according to Raphaeli, is his success in "mending relations with neighboring countries and re-establishing diplomatic relations that were severed by Saddam Hussein."
Since assuming power on June 28, Allawi has visited seven Arab countries: Jordan, Egypt, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
"In all official visits," Raphaeli wrote in the report, "Dr. Allawi was received in accordance with the rules of diplomatic protocol, giving further credence to the legitimacy of his government."
Allawi's tough-guy demeanor has also played well with an Iraqi population eager for someone to impose order after 15 months of chaos, and has earned the Shiite leader's grudging respect from Iraq's two largest minority groups: Sunni Muslims and ethnic Kurds.
"He is not disliked by the Sunnis and he is definitely on good terms with the Kurds," Raphaeli said. "By and large he's a very popular prime minister."
According to a June poll commissioned by U.S. officials in Iraq, 68 percent of Iraqis have confidence in their new leaders. By contrast, only 28 percent of Iraqis backed the previous Interim Governing Council, which was a partner to the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority.
A former member of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party, Allawi has adopted a "carrot and stick" policy toward those factions most threatened by the prospect of a pro-Western democracy in the oil-rich nation: Sunnis who benefited from Saddam Hussein's rule -- and who are now fearful of reprisals -- and Shiite fundamentalists who would prefer a regime ruled by strict Islamic law.
The "carrot" proffered by Allawi is a bid at national reconciliation. He has offered to pardon resistance fighters who were not involved in acts of violence and who are willing to give up their weapons. He has also pledged to respect Kurdish self-rule in the country's northern region.
The "stick" is a recently authorized Law for National Security, which allows the Iraqi government to declare martial law in areas affected by violence, with the exception of Kurdish areas. Allawi has not yet imposed the law but he has flooded the streets with newly trained Iraqi policemen, a strategy Raphaeli believes is already having a salutary effect on the security situation.
"There is growing evidence that despite acts of terrorism, 'traditional' criminal activities -- thefts kidnapping, assaults and many other forms of crimes -- are on the decline," he concludes in his report.
That optimistic assessment was greeted with sharp skepticism by Larry Korb, a senior fellow at the left-leaning Center for American Progress, a Washington think tank.
"I don't think the security situation is any better," Korb told UPI. "In fact, it's worse. July was a horrible month in terms of Iraqis killed, and the number of Americans killed in July is higher than in June."
He added, "I think (Allawi's) done probably as well as could be expected given the hand he was dealt. The problem is the hand he was dealt."
Sixty-one American troops died in Iraq during July, compared with 44 in June, according to a running casualty list compiled by globalsecurity.org. Ten have been killed so far in August.
But Raphaeli said that while violent insurgent activity appears to continue unabated the quality of daily life for the average civilian has improved. Five Iraqi churches were attacked by car bomb Sunday, killing at least 11 Iraqis and wounding more than 60.
"I talk to people in Baghdad," he said. "Street crime is really down. People do venture out, they go to the markets. They live their daily lives more or less and aren't too much constrained. I think the thing that really bothers them the most is the lack of electricity."
Both Korb and Raphaeli agree that Allawi's greatest test will be his ability to prepare the country for general elections, currently scheduled for January.
"This guy's no big democrat or anything like that," said Korb. "Is he going to go gracefully at the end of six months?"
Raphaeli acknowledges that Allawi "lacks democratic impulses." "He might find it necessary to stay if there are no election. It's possible that come January 2005 the security situation will be so bad that elections would be anything but possible. In that case, they may postpone them for a few months," Raphaeli said. "But he says he's committed to elections in Jan 2005. So let's hold him to his word."
Whenever elections are held in Iraq, Raphaeli said, "there's no question" Allawi will try to maintain hold on his country's highest office.
"But could he become another Saddam Hussein? I don't think so. Like (Egyptian President Hosni) Mubarak? Maybe. Maybe a sort of a moderate authoritarian leader," he said.
He added, "But maybe that's what Iraq needs."
© Copyright 2004, U.P.I.
