Reuters April 21, 2004
Israel seen advancing on nukes
By Matt Spetalnick
DIMONA, Israel (Reuters) - Israel's nuclear secrets were once so well hidden that the world could only guess whether it had a "bomb in the basement" of its Dimona atomic reactor.
But 18 years after Mordechai Vanunu blew the whistle on the Jewish state as an undeclared nuclear power, the question is how far it has advanced from an underground programme to the ability to launch atomic weapons from land, air and beneath the sea.
Foreign-based experts who track Israel's murky nuclear developments say it is still forging ahead despite a sharp reduction in strategic threats from hostile neighbours since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq a year ago.
Whatever danger Iraq posed faded with the fall of Saddam Hussein. Libya, another longtime foe, is voluntarily scrapping its weapons of mass destruction. Even Iran, seen by Israel as the greatest threat to its existence, has agreed to U.N. inspection of its nuclear plants.
But Israel, which maintains a policy of "strategic ambiguity", never admitting or denying possession of nuclear weapons, has been unmoved. "Israel lives in a tough neighbourhood," said John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington thinktank. "It will take time to digest shifts in the security landscape."
Nonetheless, with the swirl of publicity surrounding Vanunu's release from prison on Wednesday, Israel could face increased pressure to come clean about a nuclear capability that foreign diplomats and intelligence services have long described as a "bomb in the basement".
MORE AT STAKE?
Outside experts believe Israel has more at stake now than in 1986 when Vanunu, a former Dimona technician, leaked to Britain's Sunday Times photos and details of what he said was a nuclear bomb factory built deep underground in the Negev desert.
The secrets he spilled led to projections Israel had amassed 100 to 200 warheads, making it the fifth or sixth largest member of the nuclear club. More recent U.S. intelligence estimates put the number at about 80 bombs.
The United States has tacitly accepted its ally's nuclear status and has not pushed it to sign the non-proliferation treaty, keeping Dimona exempt from international inspections.
But since Vanunu's disclosures, Israel has been anything but idle. "They have worked to make their deterrent more survivable, to modernise delivery systems," said Wade Boese, research director at the Arms Control Association, a U.S. watchdog group.
Analysts say Israel's nuclear air command consists of U.S.-made F-16 and F-4 fighter jets dubbed "Black Squadrons", on 24-hour alert at the Tel Nof airbase in central Israel.
In addition, they say, Israel has dozens of nuclear missiles, with its longer-range Jericho-2's capable of striking targets 1,500 km (930 miles) away, bringing Iran within reach.
Experts say satellite images show many are hidden in caves southeast of Tel Aviv. A spy satellite launch in 2002 was seen as a warning signal of Israel's ballistic missile advances.
As Iran's long-range missiles have fuelled Israel's fears about vulnerability of its land arsenal, analysts believe the Jewish state has also made strides towards arming its three Dolphin-class submarines with modified nuclear missiles.
Shimmering behind razor-wire fences, Dimona -- which Israel once tried to pass off as a textile factory -- is thought to remain the country's sole source of weapons-grade plutonium.
With Vanunu's whistle-blowing as the last major security breach at the plant, experts are increasingly concerned about safety conditions there after more than 40 years in operation.
Arab and Muslim states accuse the United States of applying a double standard, tolerating Israel's presumed weapons of mass destruction but insisting other Middle East states disarm.
U.N. nuclear chief Mohammed ElBaradei recently voiced fears Israel's refusal to come out of the nuclear closet would serve as an incentive to others in the region to match its arsenal.
But an Israeli official said: "Ambiguity keeps our foes off balance, preventing the arms race from getting out of control."
Israel has apparently abstained from nuclear testing but, according to published reports, it used a veiled threat of nuclear retaliation against Syria and Egypt during the 1973 Middle East war to pressure the United States to airlift arms.
Public debate on nuclear weapons remains muted in Israel, where most people view them as a last line of defence for a tiny country surrounded by enemies and an insurance policy against a repeat of the Nazi Holocaust.
But Israeli scholar Avner Cohen, author of "Israel and the Bomb", thinks the "don't ask, don't tell" policy is anachronistic and that Israel must find a way to calm international nerves while retaining a nuclear deterrent. "It's Israel's last taboo and its worst-kept secret," he said.
© Copyright 2004, Reuters
