The Boston Globe March 18, 2004
Higher-Tech Missiles Feared In Iraqi Hands
By Bryan Bender
WASHINGTON - The Pentagon is investigating whether new, more deadly versions of Russian missiles may be in the hands of Iraqi insurgents, possibly enabling them to shoot down US Army helicopters and threaten other aircraft, according to defense officials studying missile components retrieved from recent crash sites and seized in raids.
US military officials thought they were well prepared for the variety of shoulder-fired missiles utilized by Saddam Hussein's forces, mainly missiles manufactured in the Soviet Union during the Cold War. For years American intelligence officials gathered technical information on a variety of portable Russian missiles - including the SA-7, SA-14, SA-16, and SA-18 - in order to develop countermeasures, such as electronic jamming equipment and decoy flares.
But missile components and other weapon systems uncovered by US forces in Iraq have fueled suspicions that insurgents may have obtained more advanced weapons, not previously known to US intelligence, that can confuse helicopters' electronic defenses or overcome attempts to send them off course, the officials said.
Nine helicopters have been lost to enemy missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, and small arms fire - costing the lives of 32 soldiers - since the US-led invasion last March. Several airplanes flying into Baghdad International Airport have also been hit by missiles, but managed to land safely.
"There is nothing conclusive, but it is a matter of importance," a US defense official said of the investigation, confirmed by other US officials who also declined to be identified, citing security precautions. "There's a constant process of assessing our countermeasures because everyone wants our troops to be safe."
The officials said investigators have been piecing together parts of missiles in an effort to determine why they were not deflected by aircraft jamming equipment, intended to thwart the missiles' computerized tracking systems, or decoy flares, designed to provide an alternative target for heat-seeking missiles.
Specialists in helicopters believe it is highly unlikely that insurgents could have downed nine helicopters without more advanced technology than had been previously in the Iraqi arsenal. But the official added that "we have not found anything that we have conclusively determined has been modified."
Still, concerns about new missile technology played a part in the Army's decision last month to terminate the multibillion-dollar Comanche helicopter program and apply the money to finding new ways to protect the existing helicopter fleet, the officials said. Of particular concern are the helicopters flown by the National Guard and Reserve, which do not have the same level of protection as the active force but are being widely used in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Officials are also probing how advanced technology - almost certainly developed over the last 10 years in Russia - might have gotten into the hands of Iraqi insurgents.
In particular, officials are concerned that insurgents may have newer versions of two deadly Russian missiles, the SA-16 Gimlet and the SA-18 Grouse, both portable surface-to-air missiles similar to the US military's Stinger, officials and military analysts said.
The leading theory among some specialists is that Russia may have sold the new technology to other nations, and that Hussein obtained it on the international black market.
"The idea that somehow through a wink and a nod this is showing up in Iraq is not surprising," said Tim Brown, a senior fellow at GlobalSecurity.org, an Alexandria, Va., think tank. "It could be an SA-18 or an SA-16 that [the Russians] sold to someone else and was transhipped to Iraq. It could be a new version smuggled in through the black market."
At the start of the Iraq war, the United States believed Hussein's forces had acquired thousands of SA-7 surface-to-air missiles, an older and less sophisticated version that is visually aimed, as well as an unknown number of subsequent models, such as the SA-14, SA-16, and SA-18. But Pentagon officials were confident all could be thwarted by existing antimissile technology on US helicopters.
Now, with nine helicopters having been downed, senior officials are increasingly worried. In internal discussions, the Army Chief of Staff, General Peter Schoomaker, has repeatedly mentioned the growing threat of Russian-made missiles as a key reason why manufacturing a new helicopter - the Comanche - was unwise, officials said.
"What we're seeing on the battlefield is a proliferation of much more sophisticated missiles," Lieutenant General Richard A. Cody, the deputy Army chief of staff, told reporters on Feb. 24 when the service announced it was canceling the $39 billion Comanche project after nearly two decades of development.
In recent months, the Army has taken measures in Iraq to enhance helicopter defenses, such as varying flight patterns and altitudes. But if pilots fly low to avoid missiles such as the SA models, which are designed to strike aircraft at higher altitudes, they become more vulnerable to lower-tech rocket-propelled grenades, which have been responsible for some of the helicopter losses.
According to Loren Thompson, president of the Lexington Institution, an Arlington, Va., think tank that specializes in weapons developments, helicopter and aircraft crews face at least two enduring challenges: the possibility that new weapon systems are available to the enemy that can filter out American countermeasures and the likelihood that the weapons the US spy community already knew were in Iraq performed better than anticipated.
Concluded Thompson: "The pilots have to have some idea of the adversary and how they are likely to be equipped."
© Copyright 2004, Globe Newspaper Company
