Chicago Tribune March 16, 2004
Spanish leader calls Iraq `disaster'
Threatens to pull 1,300 soldiers
By Tom Hundley
Signaling a determination to distance his government from Washington, the surprise victor in Spain's national elections pledged Monday to withdraw 1,300 Spanish troops from Iraq in the absence of a clear United Nations mandate.
"The war has been a disaster; the occupation continues to be a disaster. It has only caused violence," said Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, who as head of the victorious Socialist Party is expected to become prime minister. "There must be consequences. There has been one already--the election result. The second will be that the Spanish troops will come back."
The only way Spanish troops might remain in Iraq, Zapatero said, would be if the UN takes control of the occupation of Iraq and the U.S. gives up "political control." Otherwise the Spaniards will leave by June 30, he said at a news conference.
The UN Security Council authorized the current multinational force in which Spain is participating, but there has been no official discussion of the UN taking control of the force from the U.S.
Though the Spanish troops in Iraq are insignificant militarily, their withdrawal would be a political blow to the Bush administration and its claims of broad international support for the Iraq war. Outgoing Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar was a staunch supporter of the U.S. despite overwhelming public opinion against the war.
Aznar's Popular Party was leading the Socialists in polls until a terrorist attack Thursday in Madrid on four commuter trains killed 200 people and injured nearly 1,500.
In the wake of Sunday's upset, analysts, politicians and diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic were trying to figure out why the Spanish electorate voted as it did--and the implications for Spain, Europe and the war on terrorism.
"Obviously, the terrorist attack swung the election," one diplomat said. "Was it the mere fact of the blast itself? Was it the fact that the government got out very early and said it was definitely [the Basque separatist group] ETA, or did the bomb blast bring out this latent anti-war feeling? I honestly don't know.
"But this is the first election that terrorists have played a huge role in swinging. I don't see any way to avoid saying it, though obviously it's not a very gracious thing to say the morning after an election," he said.
When the bombers struck Thursday, the government immediately--and almost instinctively--blamed ETA, which has waged a 35-year terrorism campaign against the Spanish state. Most analysts thought that if ETA were responsible, it would help the government at the polls.
Soon, however, the evidence pointed toward Islamic militants. Three Moroccans --at least one with links to an Al Qaeda member--were arrested Saturday. Then just hours before the polls opened, police found a video with a purported Al Qaeda claim of responsibility.
In developments Monday, Spanish authorities said Jamal Zougam, the Moroccan detainee with possible Al Qaeda links, may have been involved in the Casablanca bombing May 16 that killed 45 people. Spanish radio reported that police say a witness saw Zougam on one of the trains that was bombed Thursday.
Over the weekend, the government disclosed much of the evidence almost as soon as it became available. But many voters said they believed the government was holding something back, and those suspicions reignited the anger seen in last year's anti-war protests.
"The war wasn't even an issue during the campaign," said Fernando Vallespin, a political analyst at the University of Madrid. "But suddenly, because of the bombings, millions of people go out onto the streets [to protest] and immediately they are reminded of the last time they went onto the streets and of the very arrogant attitude of Aznar."
Aznar and British Prime Minister Tony Blair stood nearly alone among European leaders in supporting the U.S. in its Iraq campaign, and they did so in the face of vociferous domestic opposition.
Zapatero pledged to steer Spain back onto a more European course.
"I want Europe to see us again as pro-European. My feeling is that the election result has caused surprise but a lot of satisfaction in Europe," he said in a radio interview.
He added that "Mr. Blair and Mr. Bush must do some reflection and self-criticism. You can't bomb a people, you can't organize a war with lies."
Washington's European allies quickly countered that while the war in Iraq was neither popular nor pleasant, Europe could not simply wish away the reality of Islamic militants.
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told the BBC: "Nobody, nobody should believe that somehow we can opt out of the war against Islamic terrorism. The idea that somehow there is some exemption certificate for this war against terrorism is utter nonsense."
But the University of Madrid's Vallespin said it would be wrong to interpret Spain's election that way.
"As you know, all politics is local. The Popular Party lost for internal reasons," he said. "I think everyone understands that what happened here wasn't a Spanish 9/11; it was a European 9/11. Europe understands ... it has to react in a more realistic way to the threat of terrorism. Europe has to rethink."
Zapatero would not set a date for withdrawing troops but said he would do so after taking over the government.
"I have said clearly in recent months that, unless there is a change in that the United Nations takes control and the occupiers give up political control, the Spanish troops will come back, and the limit for their presence there is June 30," he said.
Vallespin suggested that any talk of withdrawal "is more rhetoric than anything."
"First he has to take office. Then he has to talk to the allies. And then it depends on who is ruling Iraq on July 1," Vallespin said, referring to the U.S. plan to hand over sovereignty to the Iraqis by the end of June.
Critics suggested that over the past year Bush has done little to help Aznar sell the war on terrorism to the Spanish people.
Last week, Bush and First Lady Laura Bush were interviewed on Spanish television and offered condolences for the commuter-train attack.
But when Bush extolled Spain's "great traditions of democracy," some viewers said they thought he sounded patronizing or that he had forgotten the 39-year dictatorship of Generalissimo Francisco Franco, still fresh in the memories of many voters.
Also Monday, the European Union announced it would hold talks Friday in Brussels, Belgium, on anti-terrorism measures, including a continentwide intelligence service and a European arrest warrant.
- - -
Spain among largest non-U.S. coalition forces
Spain's new government, elected Sunday, has said it will remove the country's troops from Iraq by June 30 unless the UN leads the occupation. Including the United States, five of the coalition's 10 largest contributors have national elections scheduled this year.
ESTIMATED TROOPS IN IRAQ*
U.S.: 120,000
Others: 26,500
Breakdown
Countries with upcoming national elections
Britain 11,000
Italy 2,700
Ukraine 2,000
Spain 1,300
Poland 1,300
Netherlands 1,100
Australia 1,000
South Korea 700
Romania 700
Others 4,700
* As of Feb. 24
Sources: GlobalSecurity.org, International Foundation for Election Systems, news reports
© Copyright 2004, Chicago Tribune Company
