United Press International November 14, 2003
Crucial weeks in Iraq
By NICHOLAS M. HORROCK, UPI Chief White House Correspondent
WASHINGTON, Nov 14, 2003 (United Press International via COMTEX) -- The next 45 days will be a crucial measure of whether the Bush administration can get control in Iraq and end the accelerating pace of insurgency, according to defense experts and military planners.
"The wild card is whether these most recent attacks are the Ramadan offensive," argued John E. Pike, director of the defense and security think tank GlobalSecurity.org, "a maximum effort for the insurgency and January looks like June or things get worse and January looks like November."
The top U.S. administrator in Iraq, Ambassador L. Paul Bremer, returned to Baghdad mid-week with orders to accelerate the transfer of authority to the Iraqi people at the same time that the U.S. Army began new tough attacks against insurgents, conducting ground-level raids and air raids with C-130 gunships carrying 105mm cannons.
For President Bush this has been both a momentous and a disturbing week in Iraq. Some 18 Italians and 10 Iraqis died when Italian field police headquarters was struck by a car bomb. This came within days of ground attacks downing two U.S. helicopters with a total of 22 deaths and the leak of a CIA report that found increasing attacks on Americans and eroding support from Iraqis.
Bush summoned Bremer to the White House early this week and sent him back with orders to speed up the transfer of responsibilities to the Iraq people.
"It is still important that the Iraqi people have a permanent constitution. It's still important that they have elections for a permanent government. Nothing has changed," national security adviser Condoleezza Rice told reporters at the White House Thursday.
"But what is also important is that we find ways to accelerate the transfer of authority to the Iraqi people. They are clamoring for it, they are, we believe, ready for it. And they have strong ideas about how that might be done."
U.S. Central Command head Gen. John Abizaid, who directs the war in Afghanistan and Iraq, gave a detailed briefing Thursday estimating there are no more than 5,000 people, mainly Baathists, armed and operating against the allied forces in Iraq. Although this is a relatively small number, Abizaid said, "when you understand that they're organized in cellular structure, that they have a brutal and determined cadre, that they know how to operate covertly, that they access to a lot of money and a lot of ammunition, you'll understand how dangerous they are."
Despite the danger, Abizaid said, "there is no military threat in Iraq that can drive us out. We have the best-equipped, best-trained army in the world, in positions in the toughest areas that we have to deal with. The troops are confident, they're tough, they're capable." Abizaid said not only senior officers but also young lieutenants and captains that he worked with at West Point were filled with confidence.
He dismissed the CIA report, but acknowledged there is a difficulty with intelligence. "Clearly we need better intelligence at the regional and national level," he said, adding that it is clear Iraqis are able to coordinate attacks on a regional and national basis.
"The goal of the enemy is to break the will of the United States of America. It's clear, it's simple, it's straightforward. Break our will, make us leave before Iraq is ready to come out and be a member of the responsible community of nations. That's their goal," Abizaid said.
The developments in Iraq have reminded many Americans of the frustrations of Vietnam 35 years ago. When asked about how effective he thought last week's air attack against a warehouse was, Pike laughed and said should it should be called "Rolling Thunder or Arc Light," the names for B-52 bombing campaigns in Vietnam.
But Pike does not believe the enemy in this juncture can produce another Vietnam. "Five thousand insurgents -- that's not the Viet Cong, that's not the NVA (North Vietnamese Army)."
Pike is one of a large group of former military officers and defense planners who believe the United States will be in Iraq for years, maintaining a force of 50,000 or so to give stability to a civil government. "I don't think we're ever going to leave, at least not in my lifetime. It is just too important a locale."
He argues that the crucial period for Bush is unfolding. A central question will be whether the president can keep the insurgency successes down and American commitment up until a significant force of Iraqis can be put in the field.
"We're building Iraqi forces from zero in May up to well over 100,000 today," Abizaid said, but he has said the training will take time.
But Pike and others, like former Army Col. Dennis Lewis, who has advised United Press International on military affairs, argue that Americans have been in part misled by the up-and-down nature of the reports from Iraq.
"These things are not surprising," Lewis said.
© Copyright 2003 by United Press International.
