Agence France Presse November 11, 2003
Al-Qaeda keeps reminding it is a threat to be reckoned with
By Patrick Anidjar
Al-Qaeda has shown it is alive and able to strike within the Saudi homeland of its leader Osama bin Laden despite US-led efforts to wipe out the terror network, analysts said.
Al-Qaeda has been blamed in Saudi Arabia and the United States for the suicide attack in Riyadh at the weekend which left at least 17 dead and scores injured.
Terrorism specialists said the network had suffered serious blows since the September 11 attacks on the United States two years ago, which sparked the US "war on terrorism". But it is still armed, still determined and still able to surprise.
Patrick Garrett, the head of GlobalSecurity.org, a Washington think-tank on defence and terrorism, said al-Qaeda "continues to demonstrate that they are able to conduct operations with relative ease in the outside world."
And the network remains a relative mystery to the US and Saudi intelligence services, he said, highlighting how "extremely difficult" al-Qaeda is to penetrate.
US intelligence does appear to have made some progress however.
Without naming the exact target, the US State Department had warned that an attack, similar to previous suicide bombings in Saudi Arabia, appeared imminent in the Middle East country.
The US embassy in Riyadh and other consulates in the country were closed on Saturday.
A previous attack in Riyadh in May, served as a warning to Saudi Arabia's royal rulers.
Mamoun Fandy, an expert on Saudi Arabia, said that pressure from the authorities in the kingdom on bin Laden's followers had "ferreted out some people" and forced al-Qaeda to "to carry out these operations as quickly as they can".
Jonathan Schanzer, an expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Studies who has written books on militant Islamism, said "al-Qaeda has still the capability to surprise the United States and others in launching an attack against soft targets."
He speculated that for the moment al-Qaeda might be concentrating on the Middle East because because US forces are preoccupied with Iraq and the United States remains on a high terrorist alert.
"Because of the current level of security here in the US "it might be easier now for them to attack in the Middle East from their bases in Saudi Arabia."
Schanzer said the Riyadh attacks were "along the same line, the same strategy" as earlier strikes. The only small difference was that Westerners were not the target at the latest compound to be hit in Riyadh.
"It could be an indication that they will try to target more Saudi citizens," said the Washington expert.
Many experts consider there is a growing threat of al-Qaeda attacks in Africa.
Garrett of GlobalSecurity.org said this was why the United States has a task force in Djibouti, in the Horn of Africa, which is considered one of the high risk regions.
"They are there to deal with the threat posed by al-Qaeda in Africa," said Garrett.
© Copyright 2003, Agence France Presse
