Newsday (New York) July 13, 2003
Syria At Crossroads
Feeling pressure from citizens, U.S.
By Mohamad Bazzi
Damascus, Syria - As the Bush administration works to reshape the Middle East, Syria is on the spot as the only country still bearing the torch of Arab nationalism and openly supporting Palestinian militant groups.
With the quick American military victory in Iraq and the growing power of the United States in the region, Syria has attracted Washington's attention for its alleged sheltering of Iraqi Baathist officials, its support for Palestinian militants and its large military presence in its smaller neighbor Lebanon.
Syrians remain uneasy about unchecked U.S. power and their prospects of becoming Washington's next target for "regime change." To strengthen Syria's troubled economy, President Bashar Assad wants to reach out to the West. But for domestic reasons, he must continue to pursue the familiar path of hard-line Arab nationalism and support anti-Israel groups that are considered terrorists by Washington.
Soon after the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, several Bush administration officials ratcheted up their rhetoric against Syria, accusing it of developing chemical weapons and harboring Iraqis wanted by the United States.
Tensions escalated again last month after five Syrian border guards were wounded in a U.S. attack at the Iraqi border on what Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said was a convoy of fleeing Iraqi officials. The incident threatened to further undermine relations between Washington and Damascus because the Syrians were detained at a U.S. military hospital in Baghdad. The guards were returned to Syria on June 29.
"This incident had the potential to seriously damage relations because it raised the issue of violations of Syrian territory," said Imad Shueibi, a politics professor at the University of Damascus whose views often reflect the government's position. "But it was handled well by both sides, and the danger has passed for now."
A visit to Damascus in May by Secretary of State Colin Powell had eased tensions, and Syria closed its border with Iraq and expelled several Iraqi Baathist officials. Still, Bush's team is pressing Syria to withdraw its 20,000 troops from Lebanon and to end its backing for the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, which Washington considers a terrorist group.
"Syria is worried about being surrounded by American-friendly regimes and being the only state that still adheres to the principles of Arab nationalism and unity," said Haitham Keilani, Syria's former ambassador to the United Nations and now an analyst at the Arab Center for Strategic Studies in Damascus. "Syria is also worried about criticism of its role in Lebanon because it cannot afford to lose its strategic position in Lebanon right now."
Damascus feels further isolated because Washington has excluded it from its current attempts to make peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Syrian and Lebanese officials have lobbied in recent weeks to be included in peace negotiations.
Syrian leaders are convinced that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will not negotiate a return of the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East War, and that the Bush administration will not broker a peace deal between the two countries. That is why Damascus sees little incentive to entirely cut its support to Palestinian militant groups and to Hezbollah.
Assad, 37, faces a difficult choice. If he appears to give in too much to Washington's pressure, he could anger remnants of the "old guard" installed by his father and could lose his grip on power. But Assad also is worried that his policies could prompt the United States to impose economic sanctions on Syria or to press international lending agencies to cut off funds.
"This is a no-win situation for the president," said a Syrian opposition leader who asked not to be named. "At some point, he will have to make difficult choices about whether Syria can continue to stand up to the world's only superpower."
Before the Iraq war, Syria led the opposition in the Arab world against a U.S. invasion, notably from its seat on the UN Security Council. It was a stark difference from the 1991 Gulf War, when Hafez Assad sent troops to fight with the U.S.-led coalition that drove Iraq out of Kuwait. When the younger Assad came to power, he worked to improve relations with Saddam Hussein's regime, despite animosity that dated back to the 1960s. That's when bitter divisions emerged between the Syrian and Iraqi wings of the Baath party, which competed to carry the torch of Arab nationalism.
Syria is already struggling to cope with the economic consequences of the Iraq war. An Iraqi oil pipeline that once pumped 150,000 barrels a day to Syria has been shut off by the United States. The pipeline allowed Assad's government to use Iraqi oil domestically and export an equivalent amount of Syrian crude to earn about $500 million a year.
Damascus also exported about $1 billion a year in goods to Iraq before the war, and Syrian economists worry that the Iraqi market will be off-limits to Syrian exporters as long as the U.S. military controls Iraq.
"If the Americans keep control of Iraq, then they could shut us out as punishment," said Nabil Sukkar, a former World Bank economist. "But as soon as Iraqis control their country, business relations with Syria will resume in a big way."
At the heart of the dispute between Syria and the United States is how each defines terrorism. Syrian leaders have consistently argued that Palestinian groups like Islamic Jihad and Hamas are fighting a legitimate struggle to end Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories. "The United States does not distinguish between terrorism and national resistance," said Shueibi, the politics professor. "Syria will not be intimidated into changing its policies."
Washington has had Syria on the annual list of states that sponsor terrorism since the 1980s, and diplomats say that is unlikely to change unless Syria stops backing Palestinian and Lebanese militants.
Last year the Bush administration asked Congress to shelve a bill called the Syria Accountability Act, which would have imposed U.S. sanctions on Syria until it stopped supporting militant groups and withdrew its troops from Lebanon. In April, several members of Congress re-introduced the measure, heightening worries.
In his three years in power, Assad has tried to project a better image to the West. Damascus has made economic and social reforms, and has argued that it would be a stable ally for the United States. Since the Sept. 11 attacks, Syria's vast security apparatus has been sharing information with U.S. intelligence about al-Qaida and other terrorist groups.
"The U.S. administration does not speak with one voice, and we have to be patient about these differences," said Bouthaina Shaaban, a senior official at the Syrian Foreign Ministry. "There are forces in the U.S. that don't want Syria to get credit for cooperating with the war on terrorism, and they try to confuse the American public by saying that we harbor terrorists. That is absolutely untrue."
Old Tensions Remain
As the United States tries to remake Iraq and broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians, U.S. tensions with Syria remain a complication. Some key events in that relationship:
-1970: Hafez Assad becomes president of Syria and a key figure in Mideast affairs.
-1979: U.S. puts Syria on list of countries sponsoring terrorism.
-1990-91: Syria joins the U.S.-led coalition opposing Iraq during the Persian Gulf War.
-2000: After 30 years in power, Assad dies. His son, Bashar, 34, replaces him.
-Sept. 11, 2001: Syria condemns the terror attacks in New York and Washington.
-Nov. 8, 2002: Syria supports United Nations Resolution 1441 demanding that Iraq disarm.
-March 20: U.S. begins Operation Iraqi Freedom.
-March 23: U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld accuses Syria of selling military goods to Iraq, and says such "hostile acts" will have consequences.
-April 13: President George W. Bush warns Syria against harboring Saddam Hussein loyalists.
-April 15: U.S. says it has shut down an oil pipeline from Iraq to Syria valued at about $500 million annually.
-May 3-4: U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell visits Damascus; urges Syrians to play a useful role in moving forward the Middle East peace process.
-June 18: U.S. warplanes and commandos strike vehicles Americans suspect are carrying fugitive Iraqi officials to Syria. Five Syrian border guards are wounded near Qaim in Iraq.
Syria, By the Numbers
POPULATION: 17.2 million
PER CAPITA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (U.S. dollars): $3,200
ETHNIC GROUPS MAJOR RELIGIONS
Arabs 90.3
Kurds Armenians Other 9.7
MAJOR RELIGIONS
Sunni Muslim 74
Other Muslim 16
Christian 10
Jewish 0*
*less than 1 percent
TROOPS In thousands
Active 321,000
Reserve 354,000
SOURCES: National Geographic, www.globalsecurity.org.
Copyright © 2003, Newsday, Inc.
