The Daily Oklahoman (Oklahoma City, OK) May 18, 2003
Military sees less ranks, more technology ahead
By Ron Jackson
FORT SILL - Military experts agree on at least one thing: No one can stop the high-tech revolution that is in motion for the U.S. armed forces.
Where their opinions often divide is on the projected effect that technology will have on the common foot soldier, or the potential economic aftershocks at military installations such as Fort Sill, where thousands of troops are trained annually.
"Obviously, the soldier on foot is just not as important as he used to be," said Ernest Goss, an economics professor at Creighton University who frequently assesses the effect of military-related businesses on communities.
"I know generals don't like to hear that, but it's true. The movement is definitely toward technology." That movement is undertow right now in Washington, where a defense acquisition board began meeting this past week to determine whether to enter the development and demonstration phase of its Future Combat Systems program.
Future Combat Systems is essentially the master plan for a lighter and more mobile military - one that would someday include combat-ready brigades that could be deployed anywhere in the world within 96 hours.
Cheryl Irwin, a Defense Department spokeswoman, told The Oklahoman the board likely will make its final decision this week.
If approved, the board's decision would trigger the next stage of technological development on projects such as the Non-Line-of-Sight Cannon - the next-generation artillery system. United Defense, a Virginia-based contractor, plans to assemble and test the new cannon at an Elgin manufacturing plant should the Defense Department choose to move forward.
The plant is expected to produce an economic windfall for Elgin and the Lawton-Fort Sill area. An economic impact study done for Elgin projected that the plant would bring 150 jobs and annual payroll of between 5 million and 6 million, as well as 32 million in construction to the area.
United Defense spokesman Jeff Van Keuren said his company also is projecting an additional 200 to 300 jobs from new companies that will support the artillery system.
Such good news, however, might be tempered in the future by predictions from some military experts who say greater technology can only translate into fewer soldiers. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has spoken on more than one occasion about his desire to reduce the total number of American soldiers - a plan that has met a firestorm of resistance in recent years from career military men.
"People are talking about Rumsfeld's plans to go from 10 artillery divisions to eight," said John Pike, a military defense analyst who heads a research group known as GlobalSecurity.org. "We're talking about roughly 35,000 soldiers.
"That would be the equivalent of closing two American forts."
The Lawton-Fort Sill region would not be able to avoid the sting from such a reduction as a mecca for artillery training. An average of 36,575 artillery men and officers have trained at Fort Sill over the past four years, post spokesman Bob McElroy said.
In 2001, 38,600 students went through training at Fort Sill. Many of those trainees were then assigned to other Army installations.
"Fort Sill's impact isn't just felt here at Fort Sill," McElroy said. "It's felt all over the world."
Denting that effect is simply a subject no one stationed at Fort Sill dares to address in public, an Army source said.
"Nobody ever likes to talk about reducing jobs, and yet all your hear is talk about becoming a smaller armed forces," Goss said. "That will mean less jobs. If Fort Sill were located in, say, Tulsa, then the impact relatively speaking would be much smaller.
"But they are not."
Charles Heyman, an analyst for the British military publication Jane's Defence, specializes in world armies. He doesn't subscribe to the philosophy that greater technology necessarily equates to fewer foot soldiers.
Heyman is leery of Rumsfeld's desire for a "leaner, meaner" military, noting that he thinks American troops are already spread thin by multiple global operations.
"We have learned something while watching this highly technical campaign in Iraq," Heyman said. "We learned that at the end of the day, it's still all about the people."
Copyright © 2003, The Sunday Oklahoman
