USA Today April 28, 2003
Postwar force could be 125,000 Size will depend on Iraq's stability
By Tom Squitieri
WASHINGTON -- Pentagon planners say a U.S. force of 125,000 soldiers is likely to be needed for at least a year to stabilize Iraq until a new Iraqi government can take charge and provide security.
But the size of the postwar force in Iraq remains under discussion, planners and military analysts say. Gen. Tommy Franks, commander of the Iraq operation, said Sunday that the number of troops needed in Iraq now has not been decided.
The United States fielded a force of 260,000 for the Iraq war. That included ground, air and sea combat forces and tens of thousands of logistical support personnel.
The Pentagon does not reveal troop locations and numbers, but people with knowledge of current and likely deployments said U.S. troops will be clustered in obvious areas -- 17,000 to 20,000 in Baghdad, 10,000 in the north, 17,000 in Basra and the south -- and augmented with smaller groups elsewhere in the country.
Some will be at Umm Qasr, Iraq's only seaport, which the Navy is considering using. Some military officials say that would be counter to a prevailing strategy to make the Navy less dependent on shore facilities in foreign countries.
Pentagon planners and military experts have been debating how large a force is needed to keep the peace in Iraq. The outgoing Army chief of staff, Gen. Eric Shinseki, told Congress in March that several hundred thousand could be needed. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld immediately said a much smaller force would suffice.
If postwar Iraq remains generally peaceful and stable, the force could drop to 60,000 troops in a year, military officials said. The size and duration of the force could increase if there is political or religious unrest or if Iraq's neighbors interfere, experts said.
"They don't know how many more (self-appointed) 'mayors' are going to step forward and claim power, or how the Shiite mosque network is going to shake out, or if there will be a Shiite uprising," said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, an intelligence and military policy think tank.
Rumsfeld is visiting the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan. The Defense chief said he wants to talk to leaders of friendly countries in the area about the size of the U.S. military presence in the region.
Copyright © 2003, Gannett Company, Inc.
