Reno Gazette-Journal April 28, 2003
Rebuilding Iraq will be difficult, local experts say
By Don Cox, Staff
Now that the major fighting is over, the world is wondering: Can democracy grow in Iraq, and what role should the United States play?
Two local foreign policy experts predict the U.S. will face much difficulty in its attempt to rebuild a nation that has known little but turmoil and dictatorship since its founding by a foreign power after World War I.
And the pressure for the United States to leave Iraq will mount, they said.
"Democracy is one of the hardest things to put in," said University of Nevada, Reno political science professor Richard Siegel.
"We're under pressure to get out," said Siegel, a specialist in human rights and president of the American Civil Liberties Union of Nevada. "The people of Iraq are looking for us to get out in three to six months."
That might not be enough time.
Tyrus Cobb, who spent three years on President Reagan's national security staff after retiring from the Army as a colonel, estimates the U.S. will need five years, with a strong military presence for the first two or three, to secure long-term stability and peace.
"There does seem to be an implicit time constraint," said Cobb, executive director of the Northern Nevada Network business group. "There seems to be a common view between Iraqi citizens, American citizens and other powers in the Middle East for Americans to leave in rather quick order."
Pentagon planners have said a U.S. force of about 125,000 troops is likely to be needed for at least a year to stabilize the country.
Cobb expects the U.S., which, with its allies, won the war in Iraq in three weeks, to bring life to the country fairly quickly.
"The economic infrastructure will be restored sooner than most people would have anticipated," Cobb said. "I think it's a matter of months. It will be short order for water, power and oil."
After that, in Cobb's view, comes another relatively rapid step.
"I think the second task would be what you might call 'law and order,'" he said. "That might take longer. I think a semblance of a police force and people capable of providing basic administrative services will be in place in four to six months."
Then - if the U.S. is still in the country - comes the hardest part.
"The extremely difficult task is assisting in the establishment of a secular government representative, to the extent possible, of the population of Iraq," Cobb said.
Siegel, who says he's "pessimistic" about chances of bringing democracy to Iraq, lists a variety of problems. Two of the biggest are Iraq's lack of unity and the U.S. lack of expertise.
"The relative ignorance of the U.S. will come to bear," Siegel said. "We have relatively few people who speak Arabic in our government."
That, Siegel says, is the sign of a deeper problem.
"The expertise we've had since World War II were the Arabists in our foreign service," he said. "This group either retired or was shoved aside when a more pro-Israel point of view came in vogue."
Experts would help, Siegel says, in dealing with an Iraq divided by two distinct religious groups, the Shiite and Sunni Muslims, and the ethnic Kurds.
Within those factions are other factions.
"There is no unified Kurd leadership, no unified Sunni leadership, or Shiite leadership," Siegel said.
If postwar Iraq remains generally peaceful and stable, the force could drop to 60,000 troops in a year, military officials said. The size and duration of the force could increase if there is political or religious unrest or if Iraq's neighbors interfere, experts said.
"They don't know how many more (self-appointed) 'mayors' are going to step forward and claim power, or how the Shiite mosque network is going to shake out, or if there will be a Shiite uprising," said John Pike of GlobalSecurity.org, an intelligence and military policy think tank.
Mostly, dictators have ruled Iraq since Great Britain drew its boundaries in the desert following World War I. Siegel and Cobb said the country lacks an individual to bring factions together.
"There is no figure capable of being a unifying force," Cobb said.
Someone could emerge, but it will take time.
"I think what you really have to do is ensure that the country remains stable and peaceful so that some individual or group emerges that is gradually able to win the support of the population," Cobb said.
Doing it gradually may be impossible.
"You have to find the right group," Siegel said. "You have to do it even sooner. We needed to find them before the first soldier was sent in. I'm not sure we knew who they were. Of course, they couldn't present themselves as leaders with Saddam Hussein in power."
With Gannett News Service reports.
Copyright © 2003, Reno Gazette-Journal
