Newsday (New York) April 20, 2003
The Mideast Arms Race
Sources: Arab nations spurred by Israel
By Timothy M. Phelps and Knut Royce
Washington - The United States has repeatedly condemned Syria in the past week for possession of chemical weapons. But experts say the Middle East arms race in weapons of mass destruction has long been fueled by Israel's nuclear weapons program.
Israel refuses to confirm its possession of nuclear weapons. But according to numerous sources, it made a strategic decision in the mid-1950s that, surrounded by hostile Arab countries, it needed a nuclear bomb as a deterrent. Now it is thought to have 100 to 200.
Intelligence sources say Israel also has chemical weapons, which arms control experts say provide Israel with a less drastic deterrent than a nuclear bomb.
Arms control experts say Syria, as well as Egypt, Iran and Iraq began to develop chemical weapons only after it became known that Israel had or was working on "the bomb." They believed that Israel would not use nuclear weapons on Cairo, Damascus or Baghdad if it knew they could respond with a chemical attack against Tel Aviv.
"I think that the Israelis decided very early on that a robust nuclear deterrent was the ultimate guarantor of their survival and that most of the other major states in the region have sought some combination of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons and long-range missiles in order to offset that Israeli nuclear and chemical capability," said John Pike, director of the nonprofit GlobalSecurity.org.
Syrian diplomats, though claiming Syria does not have chemical weapons, have said repeatedly in the past week they would forswear the development of any weapons of mass destruction if every country in the region - including Israel - did the same. Last week, it proposed that the UN Security Council establish a Middle East zone with no weapons of mass destruction.
Egypt, which like Syria is thought to have developed chemical but not nuclear weapons, has long stated that despite at times intense U.S. pressure, it would not sign an international treaty banning development or use of chemical weapons as long as Israel continues to refuse to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The Israeli Embassy was closed most of last week for Passover, but Israel has always refused to respond to questions about its nuclear weapons program.
"The Israeli security strategy is to have a full spectrum of responses and to insure that Israel would always be able to provide a more devastating response than any potential adversary," Pike said.
Congressional sources say Libya has also shown signs in recent years of working on a chemical weapons program.
While there is a somewhat lopsided equilibrium between Arab chemical weapons capability and Israeli nuclear capability, attempts by Iraq and Iran to match Israel, or perhaps each other, with nuclear weapons has spurred the potentially deadly arms race.
Israel bombed Iraq's nuclear research facility outside of Baghdad in 1981 to prevent it from developing the bomb. But Iraqi scientists who have since defected say that Saddam Hussein redoubled his efforts after the attack.
But with Iraq under UN sanctions starting in 1991, it has been Iran that has been best able to pursue both nuclear and chemical weapons, and intelligence sources say its programs in both areas are the strongest in the Middle East outside of Israel. And there are concerns that if Iran got the bomb, its Persian Gulf rival, Saudi Arabia, which is alleged by some to have financed nuclear research in Iraq, and more recently Pakistan, would have one soon thereafter.
Newsday reported in November that Iran is covertly trying to produce weapons-grade uranium or plutonium, which would likely allow Iran to build a nuclear bomb.
"Iran actually is everything that they just claimed Iraq was," Pike said with a roar of laughter. "Iran is the real deal, OK?"
Some Middle East analysts think the U.S. is more likely to end up in a confrontation with Iran than Syria in the coming months.
When the nuclear issue is combined with tensions over Iranian influence in southern Iraq, "the opportunities for Iran and the U.S. to get into a train-wreck relationship in the next 18 months are too numerous to enumerate," Pike said.
An Uneasy Relationship
While not part of President Bush's "axis of evil," Syria has been on the U.S. list of sponsors of terrorism since the list's 1979 inception.
1986: The U.S. withdraws its ambassador to Syria in response to alleged Syrian involvement in a plot to blow up an Israeli airliner.
1987: The U.S. ambassador returns after Syria expels terrorist Abu Nidal's organization.
1990-91: Syria joins the U.S.-led coalition opposing Iraq's invasion of Kuwait during the 1991 Gulf War.
1991: Syrian President Hafez Assad agrees to begin U.S.-sponsored peace negotiations with Israel over the disputed Golan Heights.
1998: U.S. officials warn that Syria has an active chemical weapons program, including weapons that could spread sarin nerve gas.
2000: After 30 years in power, Assad dies. His son, Bashar, 34, replaces him. U.S.-sponsored peace talks between Syria and Israel break down due to West Bank violence.
2001: The U.S. State Department reports that Syria continues to provide support for Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorist groups.
Sept. 11, 2001: Assad sends Bush a cable condemning the attacks in New York and Washington.
2002: Syria supports U.S.-sponsored Resolution 1441 in which the United Nations Security Council warns of "serious consequences" if Iraq does not disarm.
2003: Syria opposes the U.S. bid for a new UN resolution specifically authorizing force against Iraq.
March 23, 2003: U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld accuses Syria of selling military goods to Iraq, and says such "hostile acts" will have consequences.
SOURCES: CIA World Factbook; U.S. State Department; Congressional Research Service
GRAPHIC: Getty Images Photo - Syrian soldiers walk over a bridge yesterday in Damascus, Syria. Arms control experts say Syria, along with Egypt, Iran and Iraq, began to develop chemical weapons only after it became known that Israel had or was working on a nuclear bomb. They believed that Israel would not use nuclear weapons on Cairo, Damascus or Baghdad if it knew they could respond with a chemical attack against Tel Aviv. Chicago Tribune / Newsday Chart - An uneasy relationship (see end of text).
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