Cox News Service April 05, 2003
U.S. faces rebuilding Iraq, patching global relations
By Dan Chapman
With American troops in the center of Baghdad, U.S. and Iraqi officials alike tried to dampen expectations that the war would soon be over.
Yet virtually nobody beyond Saddam Hussein's inner circle truly doubts that the United States will prevail in this war. It's what happens next _ in Iraq, in America and around the world _ that could turn a solid victory into postwar quicksand.
"Having broken some crockery to get there, now we have to mend the crockery," said Robert Hunter, NATO ambassador from 1993 to 1998. "You can make war alone, but you can't make the peace alone."
The challenges facing President Bush are staggering: Rebuild Iraq without being perceived as colonizing it; repair tattered relations with U.S. allies in the Middle East, Europe, Asia, Latin America and Canada; resurrect a moribund U.S. _ and global _ economy; and reassure an American psyche bruised by war, fear of terrorism and economic malaise.
"The short-term gain of winning the war so heroically will probably soon be dominated by long-term economic pain and the revulsion of the rest of the world to what they perceive as very unilateral policies and actions by the Bush administration," said Jeff Rosensweig, associate dean at the Goizueta Business School at Emory University.
Long-term U.S. presence
Gulf War II is shaping up as America's most vicious war since Vietnam. Grenada, Panama, Gulf War I, Somalia, Kosovo, Afghanistan _ battles all, but America's overwhelming military superiority was never really challenged.
Brig. Gen. Vincent Brooks said last week that the United States was prepared to "pay a very high price" in casualties to capture Baghdad.
A drawn-out, months-long war, characterized by door-to-door fighting and great loss of life, civilian and military, remains a possibility.
"The enemy must come inside Baghdad, and that will be its grave," warned Defense Minister Sultan Hashim Ahmed.
An increasingly desperate Iraqi regime, having already resorted to suicide attacks and human shields, may yet unleash chemical or biological weapons.
"My inclination is that this will be on for at least a while longer," said Patrick Garrett, an associate analyst with GlobalSecurity.org in Washington. "But . . . it'd be difficult for anyone to set a date or to give some odds as to how quickly this will go down."
The sudden collapse last week of at least two Republican Guard divisions defending Baghdad raised hopes that the final battle was imminent. Even so, the soldiers won't be coming home anytime soon.
Iraq remains a caldron of animus, deceit and retribution. Long-oppressed Shiites might seek revenge against the minority Sunni, who controlled Iraq. Kurds want a piece of the power, and may strike out at the Turks in the north. Or vice versa.
"It would be very safe to say the United States is now going to have a permanent military presence in Iraq for the foreseeable future," Garrett said. "We could be talking about many tens of thousands of soldiers for years."
Fences must be mended
Washington doesn't want to shoulder that burden alone. But its invasion of Iraq without U.N. concurrence makes helmet-in-hand pleas for assistance more difficult.
Secretary of State Colin Powell began soothing trans-Atlantic discord last week. In Brussels, Belgium, he announced that his NATO and European Union counterparts had tentatively agreed to deploy peacekeepers to Iraq.
Nevertheless, U.S. allies remain furious with Washington. Powell reiterated Thursday that the United States, not the United Nations, would take the lead role in Iraq's postwar reconstruction.
Ambassador Hunter, now a senior adviser at the Rand Corp., offered advice to the Bush administration.
"You start making nice to your allies. You start repairing fences. You talk of the role of international institutions and the United Nations," he said. "One thing that has been demonstrated overwhelmingly is that it is gratuitous to try and do things without allies."
Despite a U.S. pledge to implement a "non-negotiable" road map to Israeli-Palestinian peace, the Arab and Muslim worlds remain suspicious of American intentions. They see, instead, an American colossus astride Mesopotamia and its oil riches and within striking distance of Tehran, Damascus and other Mideast capitals.
"When it is over _ if it is over _ this war will have horrible consequences," Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak said last week. "Instead of having one bin Laden, we will have 100 bin Ladens."
The Bush administration, though, says it won't stay in Iraq longer than necessary. Nation-building isn't a Bush prerogative, especially when estimates of reconstruction run anywhere from $100 billion this year to $1.9 trillion over the next decade.
"We're going to have to be there awhile and it will be expensive," Hunter said. "The U.S. Congress, I do not believe, wants to finance that by themselves. It would sure help to have the blessing of the United Nations."
Gulf War I cost $80 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars. All but $4 billion was covered by Germany, Japan and other allies. Congress recently gave Bush $80 billion to help cover war-related costs. However, it's merely a down payment.
"A review of several past wars indicates that nations historically have consistently underestimated the cost of military conflicts," Yale University professor William Nordhaus recently wrote. "The Bush administration has not prepared the public for the cost or the financing of what might prove an expensive adventure."
Two million jobs have been lost since Bush became president; the Labor Department reported Friday that another 108,000 jobs disappeared in March. Professor Rosensweig says even business school alums are getting laid off. And the prospects for soon-to-graduate college kids are bleak, he adds.
Businesses, without much confidence in an immediate turnaround, aren't hiring or expanding. U.S consumer confidence is at a nine-year low.
"So you throw both the war and the rebuilding of Iraq in with tax rate cuts and reduced tax revenues due to a slow economy, and a diminishing stock market, and you have a recipe for a true fiscal train wreck," Rosensweig said.
But Wall Street rallied last week with the Dow Jones industrial average climbing 131 points, largely on news that war's end edged closer.
And Bush can take solace in Thursday's $29-a-barrel price for West Texas crude, well below the economy-strangling, $40-a-barrel during the first Gulf War.
In January, 33 percent of Americans said Bush was doing as much as he could to help the economy, according to a Pew Research Center poll. Today, 41 percent give Bush credit.
"It's not terribly positive," said Carroll Doherty, the research center's editor. "But there's probably a halo effect (from his war management). The question, of course, is how long will it last?"
It didn't last long for his father. Bush the elder ended the Gulf War with an 89 percent approval rating and went on to lose the next election. Bush the younger polled 71 percent on Friday.
Anxiety and fears
Karen Settle, counseling director at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, compiles a student anxiety index. Last fall, 53 percent of the 350 students who sought assistance from Settle's office reported feeling increased worry, nervousness, tension or panic.
The economy was down; fears of terrorism were up. The get-Saddam drumbeat was growing louder. Settle expects students' anxiety will increase as long as the war remains hot and the economy cold.
"It gives me the sense that we're playing a video game," she said. "When you're in control, and have more points, you're feeling great. But when you're behind, you're not feeling so good."
Americans, in general, were buoyed by news this week that U.S. troops were moving on Baghdad. Ninety percent believe the United States has been successful in Iraq, according to a Washington Post-ABC poll released Friday. But they worry deeply about the battle for Baghdad, further underscoring America's fears of a protracted struggle. Eight in 10 Americans, according to the poll, expect a bloody fight for the Iraqi capital.
"This war is a mess," Kelli Potts said last week. "I am sadder every day."
Potts, an Atlanta mother, artist and peace activist, hoped the war would be quick, antiseptic, without so many civilian deaths.
She's befuddled by the vitriol of the guy who stands across from her Decatur church during anti-war protests with a sign saying, "Nuke Baghdad and Paris." Or the fellow sporting a button that reads, "Turn Baghdad into a parking lot." Of course, the anti-war crowd waves its placards too. "I was standing next to a man at one rally whose sign said, 'No War in Iraq,' " Potts remembered. "He said, 'When we invade Iran, I just have to change one letter on my sign.' "
War's end, for Potts, will bring only momentary solace.
"There has to be reconciliation within this country and in the international community. We have a huge challenge," she said. "Just because the war is over doesn't mean we have peace."
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